Global Soybean Supply Easing

2013-08-28 Developments

august 11, 2013 22:20 Source: china securities journal

the expected increase in production is the core factor causing the recent downturn in the soybean market, especially soybean meal prices. At the same time, China's soybean meal mainly depends on the import of the United States, South America and other countries soybean crushing income, so the trend of Dalian soybean meal and soybean is more closely linked. U.S. soybean yield prospects are optimistic, no doubt negative in the domestic soybean meal trend.

Whether it is American or South American soybean, its yield and yield are mainly affected by weather, planting area and other factors. Currently, the U.S. crop belt has relatively good weather and still maintains high yield expectations. With the passage of time, spring sowing soybeans in the United States in August gradually entered the key growth period of podding and filling, which was particularly sensitive to weather conditions. The latest climate forecast released by the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that the weather in the main producing areas of American beans will remain in good condition until autumn. As of August 4, the excellent rate of American beans was 64%, 63% last week, 29% last year, the flowering rate was 79%, 93% last year, the five-year average was 85%, the pod setting rate was 39%, 69% last year, and the five-year average was 51%. However, the current weather in the U.S. bean producing area is good, which is conducive to crop growth. A meteorologist said on the 7th of this month that the temperature in the U.S. crop planting belt in the next two weeks is suitable and the soil moisture is generally good, which will boost the growth of soybean crops. The prospect of high yield of U.S. beans continues to improve and the prospect of high yield is optimistic.

According to the latest monthly report of the US Department of Agriculture, the soybean yield in 2013/2014 was 44.5 pu/acre, much higher than last year's 39.6 pu/acre. Last year's yield was mainly due to dry weather. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the total U.S. soybean output in 2013/2014 to 3.42 billion bushels, and the U.S. soybean carry-over inventory in 2013/2014 to 0.295 billion bushels. In South America, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Brazil's 2013/2014 soybean production at 85 million tons, and Argentina's 2013/2014 soybean production at 53.5 million tons, both of which are at historically high levels. In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also announced that the global soybean carry-over inventory for 2013/2014 was 74.12 million tons, an increase of 430000 tons from the 73.69 million tons reported last month, indicating that global soybean supply is developing in a loose direction.

There are also demand factors that affect the trend of soybean meal, such as the benefits of pig farming. According to the traditional "pig cycle" theory, summer was originally the season with the lowest demand for pork consumption of the year, but according to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, pork prices have risen nationwide for seven consecutive weeks. The "pig cycle" did not play a substantial role in this round of meat price increase. This is mainly due to the loss of pig breeding in the previous period. According to the "pig cycle" theory, the number of breeding sows should decrease, and statistics It shows that the number of breeding sows has been maintained above 50 million for 10 consecutive months, and the number of breeding sows in June was 50.08 million. The traditional "pig cycle" theory does have some influence on free-range breeding, but now the state has strengthened the regulation and control of the pig breeding market, and the trend of large-scale development of breeding is obvious, and the traditional theoretical law is not very obvious.

The current round of meat price increase is mainly due to: the current high temperature, on the one hand, it affects the slaughter rate of live pigs, and farmers are pressing down on the slaughter due to low consumption, which directly leads to a decrease in the circulation of live pigs in the market, thereby pushing up the price of live pigs; on the other hand, the temperature High is also not conducive to the growth of live pigs, and it also increases the cost and transportation cost and risk of live pig prices. However, this situation is less sustainable and is a phased rise. The strong demand for pork may not be until after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, mainly because the temperature is gradually cooler and there are more holidays. At the same time, the canteens of colleges and universities are also one of the main groups of pork consumption, and their consumption power cannot be underestimated. But as far as the third quarter is concerned, meat prices may hardly continue to be optimistic, and it is expected that the fourth quarter will show a steady upward trend.

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