"Ten years of worries" haunt Japanese agriculture

Grain and Oil Market News Zhang Jianbo 2013-05-18

"In ten years, agriculture will disappear from Japan!"

for a period of time, Japan's mainstream media and many scholars have said so. This is certainly a hype, but Japan's agriculture does encounter profound problems. One is the aging of agricultural workers, which was about 14.54 million in 1960 and decreased to 2.89 million in 2009, with an average age of 66. In a simple calculation, the average age of these people will be 76 years old in ten years, and it is obviously difficult to continue to engage in agricultural labor that requires heavy physical strength. The second is that the agricultural income is too low. According to statistics, if a farmer manages less than 15 acres of farmland, he will lose nearly one million yen a year; the scale of operation is more than 45 acres, and a farmer works hard all year round. 100 acres of land, from dawn to late at night, almost no rest days a year, the income is not as good as temporary workers who work 20 hours a week in the city.

Japan has been an agricultural country since ancient times and has a long history of farming. But since the 1950 s, Japan's rapid economic growth has dramatically changed this situation. A large number of farmers went to work in cities, and the countryside was rapidly urbanized. A large number of mountain forest arable land became factory roads, and the children of farmers went to college one after another to become employees of enterprises. At present, Japan's total agricultural production accounts for only 1% of GDP, and Japan's food self-sufficiency rate (calculated by calories) is less than 40%, that is, most of the food consumed by Japanese people is imported. Since agricultural labor is not only too onerous, but also generally earns less than other industry young people often choose to leave the countryside and cultivate no one. In addition, most of the few young people who stay in the countryside are men with low academic qualifications, which has caused a serious "insufficient marriage" phenomenon in the countryside since more than 40 years ago. "Marry" means wife in Japanese, that is, young people in the countryside. Can't find a wife. The author has visited a large number of towns and villages in Japan, where there is a general lack of young adults, and most of the men left behind are single, and there are many people over the age of 40 who cannot find a spouse.

In the face of this situation in the countryside, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has adopted comprehensive protection measures. because rural areas and peasants have always been staunch supporters of the ldp. After the war, the Liberal Democratic Party was not popular among citizens and intellectuals, so it was ridiculed as the "Peasant Party". In order to maintain its ruling position, the Liberal Democratic Party pays special attention to rural votes, protects rural areas and subsidizes agriculture in many ways. Operating agriculture can receive various subsidies, low-interest and even interest-free loans from the state and governments at all levels. The Japanese government also provides special funds for agricultural infrastructure. Once, the author was invited to visit the Japanese countryside. One of the farmers had a modern mushroom production factory that had just been built, worth hundreds of millions of yen, which was very beautiful and spectacular. The author asked about the source of funds for the purchase of this equipment. The farmers replied that 70% was provided by the state free of charge, 20% by the local government free of charge, and 10% by self-raised funds, but this 10% was also a bank loan with almost no interest. In addition, the Japanese government also strictly restricts the import of foreign agricultural products into Japan to protect Japanese agriculture and maintain high prices of agricultural products. For example, the import tariff on rice is 778 per cent, starch is 583 per cent, and the import tariff on sweet potato, a popular health food for women, even reaches 1706 per cent.

Although these measures have protected Japanese agriculture to a certain extent, due to the small scale of Japanese agriculture and other reasons, they still cannot change the plight of low agricultural income and no successors. Especially in the past ten years due to the impact of globalization, Japan has to partially reduce the protection of agriculture. Japanese agriculture has been strongly hit by international competition, and a large number of farmers have gone bankrupt or been forced to engage in other industries.

However, the disappearance of agriculture from Japan ten years later is still an exaggeration, although it reflects the Japanese concern and anxiety about the agricultural crisis. First, in any case, some farmers will still exist. The average age does not mean that everyone is this age, and there are still some young farmers in Japan. Second, Japan's agricultural technology level is very high. Famous rice varieties such as "Yueguang" and "Akita Xiaoding", "Aomori" apples, "Jufeng" grapes, and "Kobe" cattle are all loved by consumers all over the world. Such high-tech and highly intensive products like this The vitality of industrialized agriculture is undoubtedly relatively strong. In addition, as the number of farmers decreases, the degree of agricultural intensification will increase, and large farmers will increase. It is a general law that the scale of operation is large and the income is relatively increased. Therefore, the increase in the degree of agricultural intensification will also improve the income of farmers. status. Many farmers also introduce cheap young labor from third world countries in various ways to reduce costs and improve production efficiency.

Generally speaking, there are fewer farmers and fewer agricultural workers in Japan, and the trend of agricultural shrinkage may be inevitable, but agriculture will continue, and Japanese agriculture will accelerate intensification, try to maintain technological advantages, and open up new agricultural fields.

(The author is a lecturer at Waseda University, Japan)

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