FAO expects food markets to be balanced and prices to stabilize

Higher sugar prices drive up slightly in October food price index

staging wheat for shipment.

2013 rome, 7 November-according to a FAO report released today the Food Outlook the report said food markets were becoming more balanced and price volatility less than in recent years, thanks to improved supplies and a recovery in global cereal stocks.

"The prices of most basic food commodities have declined over the past few months. More abundant supplies, more exports and higher stocks are expected due to increased production and expectations of this season's food harvest," said Haarlem, Director of FAO's Trade and Markets Division."

the large increase in cereal production in 2013 was mainly due to the recovery of the corn crop in the United States and the record wheat harvest in the CIS countries. World rice production is expected to increase only slightly in 2013.

grain stocks

global stocks are also expected to increase by 13% to 0.564 billion tons at the end of the 2014 quarter, with a 30% increase in coarse grains alone, mainly in the United States. Wheat and rice stocks are also expected to increase by 7% and 3%, respectively.

The expansion of world cereal stocks will bring the ratio of global cereal stocks to utilization to 23 per cent, well above the historical low of 18.4 per cent in 2007/2008.

According to the latest issue of FAO's Food Outlook, in 2013, the world's food import bill will be reduced by 3% to US $1.15 trillion due to the decline in the cost of imports of cereals, sugar, vegetable oils and tropical beverages, but the prices of dairy products, meat and fish will remain firm.

Food prices rise slightly

the report also shows that FAO food price index it rose slightly in October, averaging 205.8 points. That was up 2.7 points, or 1.3 percent, from September, but still down from 11 points, or 5.3 percent, in October. Although the prices of other commodity categories also rose, the slight increase in the index was mainly due to the surge in sugar prices.

The FAO Food Price Index, a measure of monthly changes in international prices for five major food commodities (including 73 quotations), has undergone some changes in the way it is calculated, but the impact of the new methodology on the series values is not significant. The revised index has also been extended back to 1961. The revision is specifically addressed in the "Special Topics" section of the Food Outlook.

Forecasts for other commodities include:

cassava-World cassava production is expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year and reach 0.256 billion tons in 2013. Rising food demand on the African continent and increased industrial use in East and Southeast Asia, especially ethanol and starch production, have contributed to the growth in cassava production.

Sugar-World sugar production is expected to increase slightly in 2013/2014. Growth in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, is likely to be limited as adverse weather conditions hamper harvesting operations. World sugar consumption will increase by about 2% in 2013-2014.

Oilseeds-World oilseed crop production in 2013/2014 is likely to climb to an all-time high, supported by a record soybean crop in South America. Global oilseed production will be on a par with world utilization for the second year in a row, although there is likely to be a sizeable surplus of oil cake flour/oil cake.

Meat-- World meat production is expected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2013. Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the beginning of 2011. Despite lower feed costs, there is no sign of an overall price decline.

Dairy products-- World milk production is forecast to grow by 1.9 percent in 2013. The increase is expected to come mainly from Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, with limited increases in other regions. International dairy prices have fallen from their April peak but remain at historically high levels.

Fisheries-Aquaculture continues to boost the overall supply of fish, leading to a decline in quotations from earlier levels. Per capita fish consumption continues to grow, and aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries as the main source of fish for direct human consumption.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/zh/item/204270/icode/

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