Global cereal production expected to increase significantly in 2013

FAO issues food alert for Sahel and Central African Republic

farmers are winning out teff, an Ethiopian grain.

2013 year12 month5 day, Rome-The latest FAO estimates show that world production of cereals, including rice, is expected to reach a new high of nearly 2.5 billion tonnes. According to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, this figure is nearly 8.4 percent higher than last year, surpassing the record of about 6 percent in 2011.

While global cereal production is set to increase, FAO warns that food security is worsening in Africa and some other regions.

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa-Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal-the late arrival and early end of rains this year have affected crops and pastures. This situation could lead to a spike in food insecurity and malnutrition in the 2013/2014 sales year. Another factor affecting the regional food insecurity situation is the large number of Malians displaced by civil strife.

In the Central African Republic, civil strife has resulted in 1.3 million people in urgent need of food assistance.

In Southern Africa, tighter annual supplies for 2013/2014 sales have caused cereal prices to approach or reach record levels in several countries. Dry weather conditions led to delays in planting the 2014 crop in some areas.

In the Philippines, Typhoon Haiyan affected 14 million people. FAO has called for at least $30 million to be raised for agricultural rehabilitation, while the World Food Programme has recommended emergency food aid for 2.5 million people.

In Syria and Yemen, ongoing internal conflicts have led to severe food insecurity, with 6 million and 4.5 million people in need of emergency food assistance, respectively.

International food prices are basically stable

FAO also released its Food Price Index today, showing that price trends remained stable in November. Last month's average was 206.3 points, almost unchanged from October's revised 206.6 points, but 9.5 points (4.4 per cent) lower than in November 2012. Sugar prices fell sharply compared with the previous month, almost offsetting the rise in oil prices. The average price of cereals declined slightly, but the prices of meat and dairy products remained stable.

The index is a measure of monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of five categories of goods, including about 73 quotes.

Crop Prospects

the latest estimates of world cereal production mainly reflect adjustments to forecast maize production in the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where production is set in place as the harvest nears completion.

According to the latest data, in this year's overall increase in world cereal production, wheat and coarse grains production increased by 7.8 and 12 per cent, respectively, and rice production increased by only 1 per cent.

Early prospects for the northern hemisphere's winter wheat crop, which has been sown and will be harvested in 2014, are largely good.

World cereal stocks are expected to rise to 0.572 billion tonnes by the end of the 2014 crop season, up 13.4 per cent from the previous year, or nearly 68 million tonnes. This forecast is nearly 9 million tons higher than the forecast in November, reflecting an upward adjustment to the end-of-term stocks of wheat and coarse grains, while the end-of-term stocks of rice decreased slightly.

The surge in world cereal stocks this season will bring the ratio of global cereal stocks to utilization to 23.5 per cent, well above the historical low of 18.4 per cent in 2007/2008.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/zh/item/209457/icode/

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