El Niño will hurt global wheat production

2014-05-26 Developments

2014-05-20 10:25 |

research led by agrometeorological researcher Toshichika Iizumi shows that global corn, rice and wheat production will be damaged by the El Niño weather phenomenon, while soybeans will benefit.

The findings, published in the journal Nature Communications (Nature Communications), show that according to an analysis of wheat productivity, global wheat production fell by an average of 1.4 per cent from normal during the years of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization says there are signs of an El Niño event later this year.

The El Niño phenomenon occurs every 2-7 years, which is due to the increase in surface water temperature in the Pacific Ocean, and the opposite is the La Niña phenomenon.

The 2006 El Nino phenomenon led to a sharp drop in Australian wheat production and a surge in prices, driving global food prices to their highest level since 2008. The study showed that all four of the crops studied were adversely affected by La Niña.

"The overall impact of El Niño on global crop yields is uncertain," said a member of the study, led by Iizumi of the Japan Institute of Agro-Environmental Technology (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences). "Our conclusions reflect the importance of El Niño to global crop yields."

according to the study, according to the global harvest area data in 2000, El Niño had a "serious" negative impact on about 22% of the world's wheat crops, including southern and eastern Australia, Mexico, parts of China and the northwestern United States. About 6% of wheat crops benefited significantly, including parts of Russia, Argentina and North China. The study showed that global wheat yields were 4% below normal during La Niña years.

Dry weather

el Niño usually causes dry weather in parts of Australia, Southeast Asia and northern South America. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show that in 2006-07, Australian wheat production fell from 25.2 million tons to 10.8 million tons.

During El Niño years, global corn yields are on average 2.3 per cent below normal, while La Niña years are 0.3 per cent lower. The study showed that El Niño had a "severe" negative impact on about 24% of the world's corn crops, including the United States and parts of China, Mexico and Spain. About 8% of the maize crop has benefited significantly, especially in Brazil and the Black Sea region.

WMO said last month that El Nino is likely to occur in the Pacific Ocean this year. Since February, the surface temperature of the central Pacific Ocean has warmed significantly, and about 2/3 of the climate models predict that this phenomenon will occur between June and August this year.