Climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields

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climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields

2014-07-29 09:24 |
source: China Grain Network

according to research published in the quarterly journal Environmental Research Letters published by the Royal Institute of Physics (IOP), although the global demand for food and fuel for corn and wheat will increase in the next 10 to 20 years, as climate change causes Temperature rise, the probability of corn and wheat yields falling will increase.

David Lobell, deputy director of the Center for Food Safety and Environmental Research at Stanford University, and Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that due to climate change caused by human factors, the probability of a decline in corn yields is as high as 10%, and the probability of a decline in wheat yields is 5%.

A statement issued by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado stated that if the impact of man-made climate change is excluded, the probability of a slowdown in crop yield growth will drop to about 1. The Tebaldi said that due to the impact of climate change, crop yields will not keep up with demand growth in the next 20 years.

Until then, higher crop yields have helped to meet the growing global demand for food. In the context of population growth, any factor affecting yield growth is not conducive to the global food supply to meet demand, thus triggering global instability.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), corn and wheat yields are expected to increase by 13% every 10 years between now and 2030. Lobell and Tebaldi hope to find out whether rising global temperatures will reduce corn and wheat yields by 10% over the next 20 years. If this happens, it means that the increase predicted by FAO will be reduced by nearly half.

The study found that every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature would result in a 7% reduction in corn yield growth and a 6% reduction in wheat yield growth. Corn crops are the most vulnerable to rising temperatures because they are more concentrated and therefore more vulnerable to climate change.

Lobell says he is often asked whether climate change threatens the food supply, a question that is difficult to answer simply. What is certain is that the outlook for food supply over the next 10 to 20 years depends on how fast the earth's temperature rises. We cannot accurately predict the rate of global warming, all we can do is try to determine the probability of a rise in temperature. Lobell and Tebaldi said their study did not take into account the consequences of rising temperatures causing geographic shifts in corn and wheat farming.

Regional shifts in corn and wheat yields, such as to cold, high-latitude regions with cooler growing seasons, could mitigate the impact of lower yields, they said. However, the study found that such adjustments take time and may not be able to change global corn and wheat production patterns in a timely and effective manner. For example, since 2000, the area planted with corn in North Dakota and South Dakota has increased by 50%, but its output is still less than 10% of the total output of the United States.