(U. S.) Trump re-elected, the U.S. agricultural community fears a repeat of the trade war

The Associated Press calculated on November 6 that Trump won more than 270 electoral votes in the 2024 US general election, defeating Harris to be re-elected president. During the campaign, Trump promised to impose a 10%-20% across-the-board tariff on all imports and an additional 60% tariff on Chinese goods, and fears of a repeat of the trade war in the U.S. agricultural community rose rapidly.

China is the largest single export market for U.S. agricultural products. In the 2023/24 marketing year, the United States exported 46.3 million tons of soybeans, of which nearly 25 million tons were exported to China, accounting for 54% of the United States soybean exports, worth about US $13.2 billion. Industry research shows that if China resumes imposing tariffs on U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybean exports to China may be reduced by 14 million -16 million tons per year, a drop of more than half, and Brazil will be the biggest beneficiary.

The lessons from the trade war in 2018 are still there: US soybean exports to China once plummeted from about US $14.2 billion to US $3.1 billion, and the US government issued about US $28 billion in agricultural subsidies for this. While congratulating the election, the American Farm Bureau Federation and other agricultural groups urged the new government to complete the new farm bill legislation as soon as possible and properly handle issues such as taxation and labor costs.

Soybean futures fell on the Chicago Board of Trade after the election results were announced. Most analysts believe that it will take time for the tariff policy to come to fruition, but the pace of China's purchase of US beans and the production prospects of new season crops in South America will add new uncertainty to the international agricultural product market in 2025.

Sources: AP; Reuters; American Soybean Association Industry Report, November 2024.