(Russia) Russia's grain production ranks third in history, export quota policy tightened

Russia's 2025 grain harvest season is ending. According to Russian Minister of Agriculture Lutter, the annual grain output is about 0.1446 billion tons, the third highest in history, of which about 93.8 million tons of wheat; the grain diameter of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is estimated to be about 0.1345 billion tons, an increase of about 10 percent over the same period last year. Despite not reaching the peak level in 2022, Russia continues to be the world's largest wheat exporter.

In terms of exports, Russia will export about 41 million tons of wheat in 2025, with about 78% going to African and Middle East markets. FAO expects Russia to export about 52 million tons of grain in 2025/26 (July 2025-June 2026), including about 45 million tons of wheat. The FOB price of 12.5 per cent protein wheat in the Black Sea was stable at $227-232 per tonne for most of the year.

On the policy side, Russia continues its semi-annual export quota management: the quota for the first half of 2025 is only 10.6 million tons, the lowest in five years; On December 22, 2025, the government decided to set an export quota of 20 million tons in the first half of 2026 (February 15-June 30), covering wheat, mixed wheat, barley and corn. The rye quota is zero, and floating tariffs are applicable to exports within the quota.

Analysts pointed out that Russia is seeking a balance between ensuring domestic market supply and stabilizing export earnings: tight domestic inventories prompted the tightening of quotas in the first half of the year, and liberalizing exports after a high yield will help digest inventories and exchange foreign exchange. The supply rhythm and export policy of the Black Sea grain source will continue to be the key variables of North Africa, Middle East importing countries and international wheat prices.

Source: Russian Government Resolution 2089; TASS; FAO GIEWS Country Briefing, December 2025.