Jia Xiaoling et al.: Analysis of China's Barley Import Pattern and Import Diversification

Jia Xiaoling Sun Zhi Lu Li Xiande

college of Applied Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

abstract

since 2001, China's barley import pattern has shown the characteristics of continuous rapid growth of import scale, continuous high dependence on foreign countries, relatively concentrated import source market, and a high proportion of barley as a corn substitute in feed grain imports. The gradual shrinking of domestic barley production capacity, the sharp increase in barley demand and the comparative price advantage of imported barley compared with domestic barley and corn are the main reasons for the formation of China's barley import pattern. In view of the long-term existence of a large number of imports of barley in China in the future, this paper uses the constructed import dependence risk index to measure the risk of China's barley import dependence, explores the possibility of diversified import channels in the future, and thinks that the countries that can expand the source of barley import in the future include Russia, Germany, Kazakhstan and so on. Based on this, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as stabilizing the high-quality production capacity of domestic barley, optimizing the regional structure of barley import, actively laying out the global industrial chain, strengthening information monitoring and early warning and information release.

Keywords

barley; import pattern; import dependence risk; import diversification

source: World Agriculture, No. 5 (Total No. 529), 2023, pp. 57-67.