Hu Xinyan et al.: Crisis or Opportunity: Aging Rural Labor Force and Food Production in China

Hu Xinyan, Li Yanling, Chen Xiangpo

laboratory of Agricultural and Rural Policy and Reform Innovation, South China Agricultural University; School of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University

abstract

the impact and threat of the rapid aging of China's rural labor force on food security is worthy of attention. Taking "labor aging-capital deepening-food production" as the logical clue, based on the county-level panel data of 2000, 2010 and 2020, the two-way fixed effect model and tool variable method are used to analyze the impact of rural labor aging on food production. The study found that the aging of China's rural labor force did not bring about a reduction in grain production, but showed a positive effect of increasing production. Mechanical technology substitution and new agricultural business entities into the common expression of the dual capital deepening induced the realization of grain production. According to this, in the structural transformation stage of China's aging labor force, the deepening of dual capital is the fundamental means to transform the impact of aging rural labor force into grain production, and it is also an important way to deal with the impact of food security.

Keywords

aging of rural labor force; grain yield; agricultural mechanization; new agricultural management subject

reference: Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Science Edition), No. 5 (Total No. 179), 2025, pp. 24-34.