Zhu Jing and Wang Tianzi: Shifts, Pressures, and Responses in China's Grain Imports

Zhu Jingwang Tianzi

college of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University; Philosophy and Social Science Laboratory of Jiangsu Province -- "Big Food Safety Governance and Policy Intelligence" Laboratory of Nanjing Agricultural University

abstract

in the context of the in-depth adjustment of the global political and economic pattern and the tightening of domestic agricultural resource constraints, China's grain imports have shifted from sustained high-speed growth to a new stage of high-scale shocks and phased decline. In this process, the structure of imported varieties presents the characteristics of the coexistence of soybean-led continuation and the phased expansion of feed grains, and the structure of import sources presents the trend of accelerating concentration to Brazil and the marginal expansion of emerging food sources. At the same time, the interweaving of multiple external factors has not only significantly pushed up the cost of China's grain imports, but also increased the risk pressure on grain imports, including geopolitical games and extreme climate risks that have added uncertainty to the acquisition of external grain sources, the vulnerability of key nodes in global cross-border logistics has highlighted the risk of transport disruption, and the inversion of domestic and foreign grain prices has created a competitive squeeze on domestic production capacity. Firmly grasp the initiative of food import security and build a highly resilient food import supply chain system: first, to promote the diversification of import sources and the deepening of international cooperation, and to enhance the ability to guarantee external food sources; second, to strengthen the layout of overseas channels and key nodes Guarantee to enhance the resilience of cross-border logistics; the third is to promote the coordination of import trade and domestic production, and strengthen the security of the supply of key varieties; fourth, it is necessary to improve the market early warning and reserve adjustment mechanism and improve the ability to respond to international price fluctuations.

Keywords

food security; trade pattern; realistic challenges; supply chain resilience

source: World Agriculture 2026 No. 7 (Total No. 567), pp. 17-26.