World Agriculture
Developments, trade, data, and topics in world agriculture
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Deadly bird flu spreads in US turkey farmsDeadly strain of bird flu spreads to more U.S. turkey farms ~~April 10, 2015, 4:03 PM MINNEAPOLIS -- A deadly strain of bird flu was confirmed Friday at four more turkey farms in Minnesota, raising the number of farms affected in the country's top turkey-producing state to 13 and the toll at farms across the Midwest to over 1 million. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the new cases of the highly contagious H5N2 strain are in Cottonwood, Lyon, Watonwan and Stearns counties. It was the fourth farm in Stearns County to become infected in the outbreak first confirmed in early March. The four new farms housed a combined 189,000 turkeys. Officials said those not killed by the virus will be euthanized to prevent the disease from spreading. Once those birds have been euthanized, the 13 affected Minnesota farms will have lost 872,000 turkeys. Since the outbreak began, 19 farms in Minnesota, South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas have lost more than 1 million birds. All but one are commercial turkey farms. The outbreak has already prompted dozens of countries to place temporary restrictions on poultry imports from the U.S., a business that's normally worth $5.7 billion a year. Affected products include turkey and chicken meat, along with eggs, fertile hatching eggs and breeding stock. Canadian officials confirmed Wednesday that a turkey farm in southern Ontario with 44,800 birds is also infected with H5N2. Officials continue to stress the risk to public health is low and that there's no danger to the food supply. The largest farm hit was a huge 310,000-bird farm in Meeker County owned by Jennie-O Turkey Store, the country's No. 2 turkey processor, where the virus was confirmed Wednesday. The Minnesota Board of Animal health said Friday that all the remaining turkeys there would be destroyed. Officials weren't initially certain if that would be necessary. Hundreds of commercial flocks near the affected farms in Minnesota and other states have been quarantined as a precaution. Scientists suspect that migratory waterfowl such as ducks are the likely reservoir of the virus, but haven't confirmed any wild birds with the disease or any presence of the virus in their droppings in Minnesota so far. Officials are trying to determine why the virus has been evading the strict biosecurity that's standard practice at commercial turkey farms. But they've said the virus can be accidentally carried into barns by farm workers and their equipment, or by rodents and wild birds that sneak into barns.
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Global food security concerns remain as prices fallThe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released the "Cereal Supply and Demand Briefing" on February 5, which raised the 2014 world cereal production valuation to 2.532 billion tons, an increase of 7 million tons from 2013. This is the second consecutive year of food production valuation. New historical records. Due to the increasing global grain supply, international food prices have fallen to the lowest level since 2010. Theoretically speaking, the overall supply of food in the world exceeds demand, which will bring about lower food prices, which will benefit food importing countries and help ensure world food security. However, taking into account factors such as the strength of the US dollar, the financial constraints of food-deficit countries and regional imbalances, the decline in food prices cannot simply be equated with food security. In particular, it is necessary to guard against the risk of future food and agriculture production reductions that may be caused by lower food prices. International food prices fell from the beginning of 2014 the International Grains Council recently raised its forecast for global maize production in 2014. Statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture also show that the global wheat harvest in 2014 set a record, and the global rice production was close to the record of the previous year. At the same time, the demand for wheat from the United States, such as Brazil and Nigeria, is declining and is the weakest in nearly 20 years. Affected by this, the international food prices from the beginning of 2014 all the way down. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 202.1 points in 2014, down 3.7 percent from 2013 and nearly 28 points from its 2011 peak, with the Cereals Price Index alone down 12.5 percent from 2013. In 2015, this trend continues. In the United States, wheat futures suffered their worst start in 40 years, rice futures prices in Chicago hit $10.525 per 100 pounds, the lowest since August 2010, cocoa prices also fell to their lowest point in a year, and futures in New York entered a bear market. Some analysts pointed out that after the food crisis caused by the soaring food prices in 2007-2008, with the increase of production inputs and the improvement of production efficiency in recent years, the world's food supply as a whole has shown a trend of oversupply. Theoretically speaking, the decline in international food prices will bring benefits to food importing countries to a certain extent and will help ensure world food security. However, considering the current real factors such as the continued strength of the US dollar and the uneven regional development, the world food security situation cannot be overly optimistic. Abdolreza Abbashian, a senior grain economist at FAO, said in an interview with our reporter that by observing the total number of hungry people in the world, it is not difficult to find that no matter when international food prices have reached their peak in recent years, or when they have been hovering at a low point in the past, the total number of hungry people in the world has not fluctuated significantly. Food security goes beyond agriculture. According to FAO statistics, corn stocks in the European Union, the United States and China are still increasing, wheat stocks in the European Union, China, India and Russia are also increasing, and rice stocks in India, Indonesia and Thailand are also at the highest level. However, in sharp contrast, at least 38 countries in the world are still in a situation of food shortage, including 29 African countries. In countries such as Zambia, Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Central Africa, there is currently a serious food supply crisis. It can be said that international food prices continue to fall, but the food security situation in Africa has not improved, and food prices have fallen. From the perspective of supply and demand, food production may be suppressed in the future, resulting in a decline in food production. What is the reason for this contrast? Abbastian analyzed that, in fact, the increase in world grain production means more sufficient raw materials for food processing, and the final price of food is not only reflected in the price of raw materials, but also compared with the cost of processing, transportation, sales and other links. The impact of grain cost price on consumers is not so significant. "For example, the price of wheat has dropped by 10% in the international grain market, the reduction in the price of bread on the market may not even reach 1%". Since the international food market is mainly denominated in U.S. dollars, "the U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen in the past two years, which is also one of the factors that have lowered international food prices." Abbashian said that for many countries, although international food prices are falling, they are The cost of food imports is still high in the currency of the country. Moreover, for many countries with weak financial resources, even if the international food price falls to US $1/ton, hunger is still a problem that cannot be solved. This is a practical problem faced by many underdeveloped countries. "In fact, from this perspective, the world The issue of food security has gone beyond the scope of agriculture, and the different macroeconomic conditions of various countries must also be considered." on the other hand, the continued decline in international food prices has objectively weakened the competitiveness of African countries' food production in the international market, "resulting in African food production not making money in the market, and food production has been suppressed". Abbashian believes that food production in African countries is also constrained by factors such as weather, disease and war, "which also makes only a few African countries have the conditions to expand production." low international food prices have frustrated the enthusiasm of African countries, which is not conducive to food self-reliance in these countries in the long run." be alert to the risks that may arise from oversupply in the market. Experts pointed out that the current global economy is facing the risk of deflation, and consumers are more inclined to hold their wallets tightly, which may have a negative impact on world food production in the future. What may follow is that agricultural producers will reduce production because they cannot make money. At the same time, the government may also increase storage costs due to excess inventory, and then take the initiative to control the scale of agricultural production. If this happens, small and medium-sized enterprises and individual producers will suffer a fatal blow. "Falling international food prices will put large agricultural companies in a good position." Abbastian said that the decline in profits will make it difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises and individual producers to continue, while large enterprises will rely on abundant funds to take advantage of this opportunity to occupy more market share, leading to the narrowing of food supply channels. "The government must play a more important role," Abbastian believes, and policymakers must recognize the immediate reality. "The current international food prices are only relatively low, but they have fallen a bit at a very high position". The FAO Food Price Index clearly shows that although it has experienced three consecutive years of decline, the index is still more than twice that of 2003. "compared with the trend of international food prices, how to maintain the diversity of production channels and ensure the stable operation of the food market is the primary issue that the government needs to pay attention to in order to ensure food security". (Source: People's Daily, February 7, 2015 Author: Han Bingchen) lixia
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Europe: iron-handed control of alien speciesAlien plant and animal species are expected to cost the EU up to € 12 billion ($16 billion) a year in economic and ecological losses. These alien species compete with native European native species for food or nourishment and also destroy the latter's habitat. In response to the serious problem of invasive alien species, last year, the European Parliament also passed a new bill to control the entry of invasive alien animals, plants or insect species. According to the new bill, the EU has launched an "action plan" to deal with invasive alien species that have entered the EU, limiting their spread, stricter official inspections of alien species at the borders of EU countries, and introducing early warning mechanisms to ensure that invasive species can be made. Make rapid response and control. The EU-wide list of harmful species will be drafted before January 1, 2016, when EU citizens will be prohibited from owning, transporting, trading, and planting the invasive alien species included in the list. The European Environment Agency says more than 10000 alien species have taken root in the European region, including at least 1500 considered harmful plants and animals. The menacing alien species will not only cause serious economic losses, but also directly affect the diversity and ecological security of European native organisms. In the UK alone, there are currently about 2000 alien species, resulting in economic and ecological losses of up to 1.7 billion pounds a year. Especially Japanese knotweed, a weed from Japan. British gardening enthusiasts introduced a Japanese knotweed into the UK in the mid-19th century. Unexpectedly, its vitality was extremely strong. It grew to 1 meter high in a month, and eventually grew to 3 meters. Coupled with its luxuriant branches and leaves, it looked like an impenetrable green "barbed wire". What's more serious is that Japanese knotweed has a strong penetrating ability, which can drill out from the cement board or brick cracks, and rely on its strong root system to expand the cracks, and eventually cause damage to the building. Japanese knotweed is not afraid of water. Broken leaves can drift down rivers or streams to continue to grow. Only by uprooting it and burning it can it be prevented from spreading. However, its developed root system can go deep into the ground for 5 meters or expand horizontally for more than 7 meters. The part that is extremely difficult to completely remove can lurk in the soil for more than 10 years and will be drilled again when conditions are suitable. The research results of European scientists show that alien species have even led to the extinction of some biological species in Europe. Scientists also pointed out that some invasive alien species also indirectly spread diseases, causing harm to human health, such as asthma, dermatitis, allergies and so on. Aedes albopictus, a mosquito native to Asia, can infect dengue fever. The Chikungunya virus outbreak in Italy in 2007 is closely related to this mosquito. Apart from the intentional introduction of some alien species, the invasion of some other species is purely accidental. Zebra mussels, for example, came to Europe from the Black Sea in the 19th century by adsorption on ships, and this abundance of mussels can clog the intake pipes of power plants. Environmentalists welcomed the European Parliament's resolution, saying it was the first new bill to address the impact of biodiversity in the region since the EU legislated to protect animal habitats and growth areas in 1992. Ariel Brenner, head of EU policy at Bird International's European branch, said the European Parliament's resolution was "very correct", but there were still some loopholes. The bill requires the 28 EU member states to jointly identify harmful alien species on the high-risk list and take concerted action to limit their destructive power. European Parliament Member of Parliament Pavel Perk, who was the main promoter of the new bill to combat invasive alien species that was passed in the European Parliament, said: "The harm caused by alien species to Europe is so serious that they can easily breed and grow across the continent. In such a situation, cooperation between EU member states is essential." the European Commission originally proposed to limit the number of harmful alien species included in the blacklist to 50, but member states called for a more flexible approach, so if any threatening new species are discovered, they will be included immediately. Blacklist. (Source: China Green Times, March 13, 2015 Author: Zhang Jianhua) lixia
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EU food acreage expected to fall by 0.6 per cent in 2015World Agrochemical Network report: According to the forecast of the European Union Trade Association Coceral, the area under food crop cultivation in Europe will drop slightly by 0.6 to 62.8 million hectares in 2015. In 2015, the area under food cultivation in EU member states is expected to decrease by 0.6 to 60.3 million hectares, with non-EU member states, including Serbia, Bosnia, the Republic of Macedonia and Albania, planting 2.5 million hectares. The area under soft wheat cultivation in the EU is expected to decrease by 1.3 to 24.9 million hectares. The area under barley cultivation is expected to increase slightly by 0.3 per cent to 12.4 million hectares. The area under oilseed cultivation in EU member states will increase by 1.8 per cent to 11.7 million hectares, and the area under soybean cultivation will increase by 19.3 per cent to 8.858 million hectares. The area under oilseed cultivation in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Macedonia is estimated to be 390000 hectares. EU Planted Area Forecast (thousand hectares) crop 2014 * 2015** Change% soft wheat 25,250 24,924 -1.3 hard wheat 2,490 2,562 +2.9 barley 12,657 12,698 +0.3 corn on the Cob 11,537 11,456 -0.7 rye 2,157 2,222 +3.0 oats 2,642 2,625 -0.6 sorghum 1,125 1,135 +0.9 black wheat 2,834 2,700 -4.7 total food crops (1)*** 60,693 60,322 -0.6 non-EU Countries 2,511 2,482 -1.2 total food crops (2)**** 63,204 62,804 -0.6 rape 6,708 6,534 -2.6 sunflower 4,449 4,268 -4.1 soybean 719 858 +19.3 total oilseed crops (1)*** 11,876 11,660 -1.8 non-EU Countries 365 390 +6.8 total Oilseed Crops (2)***** 12,241 12,050 -1.6 * Actual data **Forecast *** Includes 28 EU member states **** Includes 28 EU member states and 4 non-member states ***** Includes 28 EU member states and 3 non-member states source: Coceral source: AgroPages World Agrochemical Network lixia
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More than 2.5 million hectares of hybrid rice planted in India in 2014Indian Minister of Agriculture Mohanbhai Kundaria recently stated that the planting area of hybrid rice in India in 2014 has exceeded 2.5 million hectares, accounting for about 5.6 per cent of the total rice area. The Indian government has not set targets for hybrid rice production, but India is committed to promoting hybrid rice cultivation through various crop development programs such as the National Food Security Mission (NFSM) and the East India Green Revolution (BGREI). India's hybrid rice production has been increasing in the past nine years, mainly due to the increasing acceptance of hybrid rice in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In 1996, the area under hybrid rice cultivation was 10000 hectares, increasing to 1 million hectares by 2006. In Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, hybrid rice was infected by the bacteria but did not suffer huge losses, the Kundaria said. The Centre for Cell and Molecular Biology (CCMB) and the Rice Research Institute (DRR) have jointly developed a bacterial blight-resistant variety, Samba Mahsuri improved rice. The variety was introduced in 2008 and is currently cultivated on 90000 hectares in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Taka and Tamil Nadu. World Agrochemical Network http://cn.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---9149.htm lixia
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IGC: Global corn production and ending stocks are expected to decline in 2015/16.Foreign media news on March 26: According to the monthly report released by the London-based International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday, the 2015/16 global corn on the Cob production will fall and inventories will fall. IGC predicts that global corn production will drop to 0.941 billion tons in 2015/16, down from 0.99 billion tons in the previous year, mainly because the yield per unit area has dropped from the previous year's high. IGC expects global corn consumption to decrease to 0.961 billion tonnes in 2015/16, down from 0.974 billion tonnes in 2014/15, mainly due to an expected decline in animal feed demand. Corn feed demand has increased in countries and regions where corn was harvested in 2014/15, but corn feed usage in these regions is expected to decline in 2015/16. Global corn ending stocks in 2015/16 will also be reduced to 0.171 billion tons, down from 0.191 billion tons in 2014/15. IGC said that in major corn exporting countries, corn stocks are expected to be nearly 25% lower than in 2014/15. Table 1:IGC's global corn supply and demand balance sheet, per million tons 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15 2015/16 february Forecast March Forecast March Forecast production 865 991 992 990 941 trade 99 120 115 116 118 consumption 863 947 974 974 961 ending inventory 130 174 193 191 171 annual change 2 44 16 -20 major exporters 33 51 67 66 50 china Livestock Network http://www.chinafarming.com/yumi/2015/3/27/20153278361324844.shtml lixia
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Vietnam Expands Vegetable Cultivation to Reduce Imports Dependence on ChinaContent Summary80% of Vietnam's vegetables, flowers and fruit seeds are imported from China, Thailand and Japan. According to the plan and plan approved by the Prime Minister of the Vietnamese government, the planting area of vegetables, flowers and fruit trees in Vietnam will reach 1.3 million hectares by 2020 to reduce dependence on imported products. According to the Vietnam News Agency, 80% of Vietnam's vegetables, flowers and fruit seeds are imported from China, Thailand and Japan. In 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam will focus on seed evaluation, management of crop seeds and valuable genes, so as to select and cross breed new crop and vegetable seeds and improve production efficiency. According to the plan and plan approved by the Prime Minister of the Vietnamese government, the planting area of vegetables, flowers and fruit trees in Vietnam will reach 1.3 million hectares by 2020 to reduce dependence on imported products. 2015/3/12 China Agriculture News Network lixia
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Asian rice exports to West Africa blocked or cause food crisisForeign media said that the Ebola epidemic endangered Asian rice exports to West Africa, because shipping personnel to avoid it, so that Asian rice exporters face high freight costs and shipping companies refused to ship the problem, but also let the Ebola epidemic area in West Africa countries to worsen the food crisis. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on October 30, 2014, since the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic, thousands of people in major affected areas in West Africa have been forced to isolate, not only causing local farming to be abandoned, but even school nutritious lunches have been stopped due to food shortages. Shenggen Fan, director-general of the International Food Policy Research Center, said that because international shipping companies have refused to ship to the Ebola-affected area, the price of rice in West Africa has increased by nearly 1/3 since the outbreak. He said: "Assuming the situation continues to deteriorate, I am afraid that more people in the area are malnourished." thailand rice exporters Riceland International director Vichai (Vichai Sriprasert) said: "mainly the captain and crew do not want to leave the ship, they are afraid of arriving in Hong Kong after contact with the local unloading personnel infected with Ebola." the crew members who arrived in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, had to wear masks and gloves before allowing local staff to board the ship to unload rice. Although APM Terminals, the port operator in Monrovia, reduced the port handling fee by US $1 per ton, it still could not make up for the soaring price of rice because the shipping company increased the freight rate significantly. George Nehme, a local rice importer, said: "We don't care about the price increase because there is no rice imported at all." He said that none of the Asian rice export vessels in December were willing to ship to Liberia. In order to resolve the domestic food crisis, Liberia had to switch to land transportation of rice from Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria, but the freight was equally expensive. The chairman of a Singapore rice trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "The shipping pipeline is quite limited because some shipping companies have heard of the outbreak and prefer to ship to South America or the United States." Even if shipping companies are willing to ship to Africa, the freight rates are quite staggering. Take the rice exported by Thai ship to Nigeria as an example. In the past, the average freight rate was 65 to 70 US dollars per ton, but now the price per ton has increased by 10 to 15 US dollars. Date: 2015-03-06 Source: China Grain Network lixia
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Europe: Strict Control of Invasive SpeciesAlien plant and animal species are expected to cost the EU up to € 12 billion ($16 billion) a year in economic and ecological losses. These alien species compete with native European native species for food or nourishment and also destroy the latter's habitat. In response to the serious problem of invasive alien species, last year, the European Parliament also passed a new bill to control the entry of invasive alien animals, plants or insect species. According to the new bill, the EU has launched an "action plan" to deal with invasive alien species that have entered the EU, limiting their spread, stricter official inspections of alien species at the borders of EU countries, and introducing early warning mechanisms to ensure that invasive species can be made. Make rapid response and control. The EU-wide list of harmful species will be drafted before January 1, 2016, when EU citizens will be prohibited from owning, transporting, trading, and planting the invasive alien species included in the list. The European Environment Agency says more than 10000 alien species have taken root in the European region, including at least 1500 considered harmful plants and animals. The menacing alien species will not only cause serious economic losses, but also directly affect the diversity and ecological security of European native organisms. In the UK alone, there are currently about 2000 alien species, resulting in economic and ecological losses of up to 1.7 billion pounds a year. Especially Japanese knotweed, a weed from Japan. British gardening enthusiasts introduced a Japanese knotweed into the UK in the mid-19th century. Unexpectedly, its vitality was extremely strong. It grew to 1 meter high in a month, and eventually grew to 3 meters. Coupled with its luxuriant branches and leaves, it looked like an impenetrable green "barbed wire". What's more serious is that Japanese knotweed has a strong penetrating ability, which can drill out from the cement board or brick cracks, and rely on its strong root system to expand the cracks, and eventually cause damage to the building. Japanese knotweed is not afraid of water. Broken leaves can drift down rivers or streams to continue to grow. Only by uprooting it and burning it can it be prevented from spreading. However, its developed root system can go deep into the ground for 5 meters or expand horizontally for more than 7 meters. The part that is extremely difficult to completely remove can lurk in the soil for more than 10 years and will be drilled again when conditions are suitable. The research results of European scientists show that alien species have even led to the extinction of some biological species in Europe. Scientists also pointed out that some invasive alien species also indirectly spread diseases, causing harm to human health, such as asthma, dermatitis, allergies and so on. Aedes albopictus, a mosquito native to Asia, can infect dengue fever. The Chikungunya virus outbreak in Italy in 2007 is closely related to this mosquito. Apart from the intentional introduction of some alien species, the invasion of some other species is purely accidental. Zebra mussels, for example, came to Europe from the Black Sea in the 19th century by adsorption on ships, and this abundance of mussels can clog the intake pipes of power plants. Environmentalists welcomed the European Parliament's resolution, saying it was the first new bill to address the impact of biodiversity in the region since the EU legislated to protect animal habitats and growth areas in 1992. Ariel Brenner, head of EU policy at Bird International's European branch, said the European Parliament's resolution was "very correct", but there were still some loopholes. The bill requires the 28 EU member states to jointly identify harmful alien species on the high-risk list and take concerted action to limit their destructive power. European Parliament Member of Parliament Pavel Perk, who was the main promoter of the new bill to combat invasive alien species that was passed in the European Parliament, said: "The harm caused by alien species to Europe is so serious that they can easily breed and grow across the continent. In such a situation, cooperation between EU member states is essential." the European Commission originally proposed to limit the number of harmful alien species included in the blacklist to 50, but member states called for a more flexible approach, so if any threatening new species are discovered, they will be included immediately. Blacklist. (Source: China Green Times 2015-3-11 author: Zhang Jianhua) lixia
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China's pork and soybean imports will increase by more than 40% in the next decadeAccording to the long-term forecast report released by the US Department of Agriculture in February, by 2024, China's net imports of coarse grains and soybeans may increase by 46% and 40% respectively from current levels. China has been a net importer of cotton, soybeans, rapeseed, barley, soybean oil and palm oil for at least the past decade, the report said. China has also become a net importer of pork, beef, corn, wheat, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil since 2008/09 and a net importer of rice since 2011/12. According to the report, China will remain the world's number one soybean importer in the next decade. By 2024, China's soybean import demand will account for 71% of the world's total imports, up from 65% at present. China's cotton imports will also more than double from the current low level, but still be lower than the record high in 2011/12. By 2024, China and Hong Kong's net imports of beef and pork will increase by 71% and 41% respectively. China is a net exporter of poultry meat, and poultry meat exports may increase by 12% by 2024. China's recent import trade has had a significant impact on some of the undertraded grains, including barley and sorghum. In the past three years, China has become the world's major sorghum importer, importing 4.2 million tons in 2013/14. Because sorghum is a low-cost alternative to corn, China will remain the main sorghum importer in the next ten years. China imported 2.2 million tons of barley in 2012/13 and doubled to 4.9 million tons in 2013/14. Barley imports may still be huge by 2024. Barley demand comes from the feed industry as well as the beer processing industry. Source: search pig net http://www.soozhu.com/article/210466/ lixia
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US: Pork Exports Decline in January, Lost to EU in China and Other Export MarketsAccording to data issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Association (USMEF), U.S. beef, pork and lamb exports fell sharply in January 2015 compared with the previous year. Shipment delays caused by labor disputes on the U.S. West Coast and a combination of economic factors caused U.S. beef and pork exports in January to fall to the lowest level in four years. However, Philip Seng, president and CEO of the American Meat Export Association, pointed out that the situation facing beef exports and pork exports is very different. In 2015, global beef supplies became extremely tight again, while pork supplies were on the rise; competition in major pork export markets continued to intensify. Philip Seng pointed out that the congestion of the port is naturally a major reason, and some other negative factors also play a role. The currencies of the main export markets of the United States have weakened against the dollar, but the currencies of the main competitors of the United States-Australia, the European Union, Brazil and Canada-are also in a weak trend. The price disadvantage is becoming more and more difficult to overcome. January was the first month that beef tariff cuts under the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA) went into effect, with further tariff cuts coming in April. Although Japan and the European Union have not yet reached an agreement, the two sides have recently completed the ninth round of economic partnership negotiations. It is expected that the two sides will finally sign an agreement on EU pork tariff reduction. South Korea and Australia's new trade agreements with Canada also narrow the tariff rate advantage that the United States has over these two countries. U.S. Pork Exports to South Korea Increase, Mexico Steady pork exports fell 16 per cent to 161165 tonnes in January, while exports fell 15 per cent to $0.4553 billion. The export volume of cut meat (119455 tons) decreased by 20%, and the export value ($0.3745 billion) decreased by 18%. The decline in United States exports to Mexico, the leading export market, was not significant (59306 tons, down 1 per cent), while exports stabilized at $0.1128 billion. U.S. exports to South Korea increased strongly (15262 tons, up 34%) and exports ($51.4 million, up 54%). US pork exports to Taiwan doubled in January compared with sluggish levels in 2014, with total exports rising 28 per cent to 1007 tonnes. U.S. Pork Exports to Other Major Markets Decline Overall the United States exported 26493 tons of frozen meat to Japan in January, down 25% year-on-year. In the China/Hong Kong region, European pork exports dominated, while US exports of 17681 tons fell 49%, the lowest level in the past five years, mainly due to market access issues and the weak situation of domestic pork prices in China. Following a deceleration in exports in the second half of 2014, US exports to Australia (2598 tonnes, down 59%) remained sluggish in January, while the EU and Canada increased their respective market shares. Source: International Animal Husbandry Network Exclusive Compilation http://www.guojixumu.com/newsall.aspx?cid=22&id=4136 on March 12, 2015 lixia
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Global pork prices return to normalGlobal pork prices rose to record highs in mid -2014 and returned to more normal levels by the end of the year. The surge in prices is the impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus on global pork supply, which has affected major pork exporting countries (the United States) and some key importing countries (Japan, South Korea and Mexico, etc.). This brought the average export price of pork in the summer (based on data from the four major global exporters-the European Union, the United States, Canada and Brazil) to US $3.50/kg, 13% higher than the previous record of US $3.12/kg. However, as the epidemic of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus subsided and signs of increased pork production in 2015 appeared, pork prices fell again. The average value of exports fell to $2.95 in December 2014, in line with the levels of 2012 and 2013. Prices in the EU have been largely unaffected by price increases elsewhere, mainly because of the import ban imposed by Russia, so pork in the EU was the cheapest in 2014, contrary to its usual level. After Canada also entered Russia's embargo list in August, its pork prices also fell sharply, and its export situation was close to that of EU exporters. At the end of 2014, due to the devaluation of the ruble, Russian importers were reluctant to use the US dollar to buy large quantities of pork. As a result, U.S. pork prices were the most expensive among major exporters in December. But prices in the United States fell further to their lowest level in five years in the new year of 2015, which finally brought the United States and other exporting countries to the same level. Coupled with the strong US dollar against the euro, Canadian dollar, Brazilian real, etc., this means that the global average price in US dollars will fall further in early 2015, and may reach the lowest level in more than four years. China Livestock Network2015-3-12http://www.chinafarming.com/shengzhu/2015/3/12/20153129345449568.html editor: lixia
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Prices are falling, but concerns about global food security persist.The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released the "Cereal Supply and Demand Briefing" on February 5, which raised the 2014 world cereal production valuation to 2.532 billion tons, an increase of 7 million tons from 2013. This is the second consecutive year of food production valuation. New historical records. Due to the increasing global grain supply, international food prices have fallen to the lowest level since 2010. Theoretically speaking, the overall supply of food in the world exceeds demand, which will bring about lower food prices, which will benefit food importing countries and help ensure world food security. However, taking into account factors such as the strength of the US dollar, the financial constraints of food-deficit countries and regional imbalances, the decline in food prices cannot simply be equated with food security. In particular, it is necessary to guard against the risk of future food and agriculture production reductions that may be caused by lower food prices. International food prices fell from the beginning of 2014 the International Grains Council recently raised its forecast for global maize production in 2014. Statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture also show that the global wheat harvest in 2014 set a record, and the global rice production was close to the record of the previous year. At the same time, the demand for wheat from the United States, such as Brazil and Nigeria, is declining and is the weakest in nearly 20 years. Affected by this, the international food prices from the beginning of 2014 all the way down. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 202.1 points in 2014, down 3.7 percent from 2013 and nearly 28 points from its 2011 peak, with the Cereals Price Index alone down 12.5 percent from 2013. In 2015, this trend continues. In the United States, wheat futures suffered their worst start in 40 years, rice futures prices in Chicago hit $10.525 per 100 pounds, the lowest since August 2010, cocoa prices also fell to their lowest point in a year, and futures in New York entered a bear market. Some analysts pointed out that after the food crisis caused by the soaring food prices in 2007-2008, with the increase of production inputs and the improvement of production efficiency in recent years, the world's food supply as a whole has shown a trend of oversupply. Theoretically speaking, the decline in international food prices will bring benefits to food importing countries to a certain extent and will help ensure world food security. However, considering the current real factors such as the continued strength of the US dollar and the uneven regional development, the world food security situation cannot be overly optimistic. Abdolreza Abbashian, a senior grain economist at FAO, said in an interview with our reporter that by observing the total number of hungry people in the world, it is not difficult to find that no matter when international food prices have reached their peak in recent years, or when they have been hovering at a low point in the past, the total number of hungry people in the world has not fluctuated significantly. Food security goes beyond agriculture. According to FAO statistics, corn stocks in the European Union, the United States and China are still increasing, wheat stocks in the European Union, China, India and Russia are also increasing, and rice stocks in India, Indonesia and Thailand are also at the highest level. However, in sharp contrast, at least 38 countries in the world are still in a situation of food shortage, including 29 African countries. In countries such as Zambia, Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Central Africa, there is currently a serious food supply crisis. It can be said that international food prices continue to fall, but the food security situation in Africa has not improved, and food prices have fallen. From the perspective of supply and demand, food production may be suppressed in the future, resulting in a decline in food production. What is the reason for this contrast? Abbastian analyzed that, in fact, the increase in world grain production means more sufficient raw materials for food processing, and the final price of food is not only reflected in the price of raw materials, but also compared with the cost of processing, transportation, sales and other links. The impact of grain cost price on consumers is not so significant. "For example, the price of wheat has dropped by 10% in the international grain market, the reduction in the price of bread on the market may not even reach 1%". Since the international food market is mainly denominated in U.S. dollars, "the U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen in the past two years, which is also one of the factors that have lowered international food prices." Abbashian said that for many countries, although international food prices are falling, they are The cost of food imports is still high in the currency of the country. Moreover, for many countries with weak financial resources, even if the international food price falls to US $1/ton, hunger is still a problem that cannot be solved. This is a practical problem faced by many underdeveloped countries. "In fact, from this perspective, the world The issue of food security has gone beyond the scope of agriculture, and the different macroeconomic conditions of various countries must also be considered." on the other hand, the continued decline in international food prices has objectively weakened the competitiveness of African countries' food production in the international market, "resulting in African food production not making money in the market, and food production has been suppressed". Abbashian believes that food production in African countries is also constrained by factors such as weather, disease and war, "which also makes only a few African countries have the conditions to expand production." low international food prices have frustrated the enthusiasm of African countries, which is not conducive to food self-reliance in these countries in the long run." be alert to the risks that may arise from oversupply in the market. Experts pointed out that the current global economy is facing the risk of deflation, and consumers are more inclined to hold their wallets tightly, which may have a negative impact on world food production in the future. What may follow is that agricultural producers will reduce production because they cannot make money. At the same time, the government may also increase storage costs due to excess inventory, and then take the initiative to control the scale of agricultural production. If this happens, small and medium-sized enterprises and individual producers will suffer a fatal blow. "Falling international food prices will put large agricultural companies in a good position." Abbastian said that the decline in profits will make it difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises and individual producers to continue, while large enterprises will rely on abundant funds to take advantage of this opportunity to occupy more market share, leading to the narrowing of food supply channels. "The government must play a more important role," Abbastian believes, and policymakers must recognize the immediate reality. "The current international food prices are only relatively low, but they have fallen a bit at a very high position". The FAO Food Price Index clearly shows that although it has experienced three consecutive years of decline, the index is still more than twice that of 2003. "compared with the trend of international food prices, how to maintain the diversity of production channels and ensure the stable operation of the food market is the primary issue that the government needs to pay attention to in order to ensure food security". (Source: People's Daily Author: Han Bingchen) editor: lixia
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US rice farmers eyeing Chinese market~ ~ US. rice farmers see opportunity in China U.S. rice farmers look to export to China Josh Sheppard, a fourth-generation rice grower in Biggs, Calif., about 60 miles north of Sacramento, said he would welcome Chinese buyers because they probably would pay more for his grains than U.S. customers. (Carl Costas / For The Times) By David Pierson contact the reporter This article is related to: Business, China, Agriculture, Imports, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Smithfield Food Greg Yielding was given a quixotic task: travel to China and determine if consumers there would be willing to eat American rice .. So he set up tables at some of the most popular supermarkets in southern China, hung American flags and began dishing out steamy samples of rice from Arkansas and California. "At first they'd say, 'There's rice in the U.S.?" said Yielding, head of emerging markets for the U.S. Rice Producers Assn., a Houston-based trade group. "And we'd have to show them a map to explain that it's grown in California and the South. Then they'd try it, and they would really like it ." Rice imports to China lin ------------ FOR THE RECORD: Rice exports: An article in the Aug. 24 Section A about U.S. rice farmers hoping to enter the China market described the USA Rice Federation as a trade association that largely represents millers. The group said it also represents merchants and 90% of the nation's rice growers. - ------------ Chinese importers, distributors and grocery chains lined up. Selling U.S. rice to China seemed like a slam-dunk. But eight years after Yielding's first venture on behalf of the U.S. industry, not a single shipment of American rice has officially made it into Chinese hands. That won't happen until the two countries agree on a so-called phytosanitary protocol, which determines the necessary steps U.S. rice exporters must take to mitigate pests such as insects. The disagreement highlights the growing pressure on U.S. agricultural producers to either accommodate China or risk being shut out of the world's largest emerging consumer market. That might not have mattered a decade ago when U.S. farmers could rely on domestic buyers or traditional foreign markets such as Mexico and Canada. Today, China's swelling appetite for food is touching agribusiness everywhere and forcing companies to choose whether to adapt. l Related Shorter fruit trees bred to cut farm labor costsBusinessShorter fruit trees bred to cut farm labor costsSee all relatedí 8 ADVERTISEMENT Those that comply are seeing dividends. American agricultural exports to China rose to a record $25.8 billion last year from $5 billion a decade earlier. Until a few years ago, no one would have considered exporting much rice to China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the grain. Tim Johnson, president and chief executive of the California Rice Commission, called it "the ultimate example of selling ice to the Eskimos ." But starting in 2012, China went on a spree, scooping up millions of tons of the grain from countries such as Vietnam, Pakistan and India. China is now on pace to import a record 3.4 million tons of rice this year - six times more than it did in 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “At first they'd say, 'There's rice in the U.S.?' ... Then they'd try it, and they would really like it ." -Greg Yielding, head of emerging markets for the U.S. Rice Producers Assn. t▼ SHARE THIS QUOTE Chinese regulators want the U.S. rice industry to expand the use of insect traps down the supply chain and keep records of their findings. The USA Rice Federation, a trade association in Washington, D.C., that largely represents millers, called the Chinese demands "unrealistic and onerous ." The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service declined to provide details about the negotiations. A spokeswoman said the agency was currently reviewing the latest Chinese response, received Aug. 1. Other food exporters have overcome challenges gaining access to the China market. Before Chinese buyers purchased Smithfield Foods last year, the Virginia pork giant began ramping up production of meat free of ractopamine, a feed additive used to promote lean muscle that's banned in China. Dairy farmers in Nevada also built a first-of-its-kind milk powder plant to meet China's preference for whole milk powder rather than the skim milk powder standard in the U.S. c Comments Rice takes lots of water (subsidized by the American taxpayer) which should be prioritized for AMERICAN USE. Why are we giving our water for wasteful subsidized Corporate "farmers" to make a profit feeding the Chinese Communists! I think there are rice fields and silos in Northern... Webster Maximus at 2:15 PM August 27, 2014 Add a commentí See all commentsí 20 ADVERTISEMENT Other industries remain shut out. The U.S. beef industry is still trying to overturn a 2003 ban on American cattle over mad cow disease. Starting late last year, nearly a million tons of U.S. corn have been rejected at Chinese ports because of inclusion of an unapproved genetically modified strain. And some American pork imports were halted this month over fears they contained traces of ractopamine. "Demand is growing so quickly in China for so many food products - and with so many places to get them from - China can pick and choose," said Jim Harkness, a senior advisor on China for the Institute of Agriculture and Trade Policy in Minneapolis. "From a U.S. perspective, it looks like the Chinese are being picky and erecting non-tariff barriers for political reasons. But I think from the Chinese perspective, the U.S. is an outlier in some cases. Ractopamine is banned in over 100 countries ." U.S. rice farmers see export market in China Lin Fourth-generation rice grower Josh Sheppard is accompanied by his dog, Tonka, on his farm in Biggs, Calif. (Carl Costas / For The Times) In addition to China, the European Union and Russia also ban the additive. It's deemed a risk to people with cardiovascular problems. While other products struggle to win access, the U.S. rice growers are hopeful that officials in Washington and Beijing can come to terms as early as next year. If they do, analysts estimate, U.S. rice exports to China could reach several hundred million dollars a year. That would make China a top buyer of the American grain, on par with Mexico and Japan. Though it produces only 2% of the world's rice, the U.S. accounts for nearly 10% of the rice traded globally - enough to make it the fifth-biggest exporter. About half the rice grown in the U.S. ends up abroad. Still, rice consumption in China is so high the country could eat through America's annual production in 17 days. ADVERTISEMENT California's Sacramento Valley produces about one-fifth of America's rice, generally a stickier medium grain that's popular in north Asia and often is used in sushi. The rest is mostly long grain grown in the southern U.S. in states such as Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The growing Chinese appetite for imported rice may partly reflect surging food demand, analysts said. But it's mostly driven by arbitrage, as government policies have kept domestic rice prices high to protect Chinese farmers. Rice mills in China decided it was cheaper to buy foreign supplies. American rice producers can't meet that sort of mass demand - nor do they want to. Their interest is in selling packaged rice to China to fill a high-end niche. The rice producers association's survey of Chinese consumers buttressed that idea. Despite the concerns of Chinese regulators, shoppers in China overwhelmingly perceived U.S. rice as a safe alternative in a country hit by myriad food safety scandals. Josh Sheppard, a fourth-generation rice grower in Biggs, Calif., about 60 miles north of Sacramento, said he'd welcome Chinese buyers because they probably would pay more for his grains than U.S. customers - much the way Japanese buyers currently do. That's especially important now when drought has cut rice acreage in the state by 25%. ADVERTISEMENT "We don't want to compete down in the gutter. We consider ourselves a premium product, like a fine wine," said Sheppard, who heads a rice farming cooperative in Butte County that's already made plans to export to China. The cooperative is managed by Stuart Hoetger, co-founder of Stogan Group, an agricultural consulting firm in Chico, Calif. Hoetger has arranged a partnership between the rice growers and Chinese food and agriculture conglomerate Wufeng. U.S. rice farmers see China as an export market California grower Josh Sheppard heads a rice farming cooperative in Butte County that has made plans to export to China. (Carl Costas / For The Times) Medium grain rice known as Calrose grown by the cooperative is being shipped in limited quantities to Chinese ports, where Wufeng is redirecting it to customers in small markets such as the Solomon Islands, the idea being Hoetger and his growers will be ready to ship to China shortly after a trade agreement is finalized. "If China asks for something, you do it," Hoetger said. "You ask any farmer that's sold to China in the last few years and they'll tell you they've made a lot of money ."
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A bumper grain harvest triggers a capital exit~~Record Crops Spur Exits From Agriculture Investment Funds By Megan Durisin Sep 3, 2014 4:30 AM G The investment binge in U.S. agriculture funds has ended as record crops and the promise of improving meat supplies send prices plunging. After taking in more money than precious metals or energy funds during the first five months of 2014, exchange-traded products backed by agriculture had a net outflow for the year of $57.7 million as of Aug. 29, down 2.9 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Energy, precious-metal, industrial-metal and broad-based funds saw net inflows over the period, boosting total raw-material investment by $341 million, or 0.5 percent. While coffee, cattle and hogs posted gains that beat most commodities this year, prices for cotton, soybeans, corn and wheat fell into bear markets. Speculator bets on an agriculture rally are down 78 percent since early April as farmers in the U.S., the world's largest grain grower, prepare to collect what the government predicts will be record harvests. Global food costs fell for four straight months through July. “We're coming up on what could be one of the biggest crop years ever," Kurt Nelson, a founder and partner at SummerHaven Investment Management in Stamford, Connecticut, said in an Aug. 28 telephone interview. The SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index holds about $850 million. “There's more certainty now about the success of the crop," Nelson said. “It looks like we're not going to have any surprises ." Record Crops As recently as the end of May, after rains caused planting delays that sparked a crop-price rally, U.S. agriculture ETPs tracked by Bloomberg had a net in-flow of $45.8 million for 2014. At that point, precious-metals funds had a net outflow of $380.5 million and energy funds had lost $12.7 million, while industrial metals were up $48.6 million. Near-ideal weather followed, and farmers now are expected to reap a record 14.032 billion bushels of corn and 3.816 billion bushels of soybeans, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Aug. 12. Crop conditions on Aug. 24 were the best for that time of year in at least two decades, the USDA said. Futures for both commodities touched four-year lows on the Chicago Board of Trade since the end of June and are down more than 30 percent from this year's highs. Prospects for cheap feed grain has pared gains for cattle and hog futures. While prices are still up, ETPs linked to livestock have a net outflow of $10.2 million as of Aug. 29, down 19 percent for the year, compared with a net inflow on May 30 of $3.2 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Less Bullish Money managers whose net-long positions across 11 different agricultural commodities surged to 1.1 million futures and options contracts in early April, the most since 2010, had cut their bullish holdings to 248,335 contracts by Aug. 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data going back to 2006. The speculators were bearish on soybeans, cotton and sugar. The Bloomberg Agriculture Index of seven farm products, excluding livestock, has tumbled 21 percent since the end of April, as all prices fell. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials slid 9.1 percent over the same period, while the MSCI All-World Index of equities gained 4.1 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index rose 2.1 percent. As most crop futures dropped, some metals rose. Copper futures posted four straight months of gains through July, the longest rally for a most-active contract since 2011, as global stockpiles fell to the lowest since 2008. Aluminum is up 17 percent, off to its best start to a year since 2009. Gold futures gained 5.2 percent this year to $1,265 an ounce, as conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza to Iraq spur demand for a haven. ETP Rebound U.S. ETPs backed by precious metals have seen a rebound since May, with a net inflow this year of $123.3 million as of Aug. 29, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Industrial-metals funds are up $105.5 million, energy funds have a net inflow of $154.7 million, and broad-based funds are up $25.3 million. Agriculture may still rebound. Corn and soybean harvests won't start for another few weeks in the U.S., so there's still the risk of weather damage from rain or frost for the nation's two largest crops. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour pegged the soybean crop at 3.812 billion bushels, less than the USDA estimate, noting crops in Minnesota and South Dakota looked “average," the group said Aug. 22. Wheat futures rose 0.2 percent last week, the first gain in three, as fighting expanded between Ukraine and Russia. The two countries will account for a fifth of global exports this year, the USDA estimates. “We're at the low end of the grain-value range," said Ashmead Pringle, president of Atlanta-based GreenHaven Commodity Services, whose Greenhaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund oversees about $350 million. “The grains are going to see some strength going forward ." Texas Drought More than a third of Texas, the largest cotton and cattle producing state, remains in severe drought as of Aug. 26, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. Cattle futures are up 13 percent this year, feeder cattle have rallied 31 percent, and hogs have gained 17 percent as producers were slow to rebuild herds, even as cheaper grain reduces the cost of animal feed. Coffee production in Brazil, the world's top grower, may drop as much as 18 percent as a prolonged drought plagues growing areas, the National Coffee Council said. Arabica-coffee futures have surged 89 percent this year. Bumper Crop For now, the weather is primed to promote crop growth, and the USDA on Aug. 12 raised its estimates for U.S. beef and pork production this year, citing cheaper feed. Through August, the Bloomberg Commodity Agriculture and Livestock Index posted four straight months of losses, reversing four consecutive advances at the start of the year that marked the longest rally since 2010. “In the agriculture space, the more you produce, the lower the price will be," Darwei Kung, who helps manage $710 million for the Deutsche Enhanced Commodity Strategy Fund in New York, said in an Aug. 28 interview. “We do see people's interest in ETFs move exactly the same way. This year is going to turn out to be a very strong production year for all of the grains and a lot of agricultural products ." To contact the reporter on this story: Megan Durisin in Chicago at mdurisin1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net Joe Richter
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Russia bans imports of U.S. agricultural products~ ~ Russia to ban all U.S. agricultural imports Michael Winter, USA TODAY 8:44 p.m. EDT August 6, 2014 Retaliating for U.S. sanctions over Ukraine, Russia will ban or limit all American agricultural products for up to a year, a Kremlin official said Wednesday. All fruits and vegetables from the European Union will also be locked out, the country's agricultural and veterinary watchdog told RIA Novosti. Produce from Canada and Japan will also be blocked. The complete list of banned products, to be announced Thursday, will be "very substantial," said Alexey Alekseenko, an assistant to the head of the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance. The White House said the move would further harm Russia and its economy. "Retaliating against Western companies or countries will deepen Russia's international isolation, causing further damage to its own economy," a spokeswoman told RIA Novosti. USATODAY Russian war games raise fear of Ukraine invasion Food prices in Russia would likely rise in the short term because of the import ban but not cause long-term damage, the country's agricultural watchdog predicted. The ban is not likely to have a major impact on U.S. farmers and ranchers, said U.S. farm groups. "It is unfortunate that the biggest losers in this will be Russian consumers, who will pay more for their food now as well as in the long run," Bob Stallman, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, told The Des Moines Register. STORY: US farm groups urge Russia to rescind ban on agricultural imports Still, farm groups urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to rescind the decree he signed earlier Wednesday authorizing the year-long ban on all agricultural imports from countries that imposed sanctions on Russian companies, banks, politicians and oligarchs because of the conflict in Ukraine. Last year, U.S. data show, Russia imported about $1.3 billion in U.S. food and agricultural products. That accounted for just over 10% of all U.S. exports to the country. Poultry was the top U.S. import, worth $310 million, followed by tree nuts ($172 million), soybeans ($157 million), and live animals ($149 million). Russia is also the 5th largest export market for U.S. pork and the 8th largest export market worldwide for U.S. beef, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. Globally, Russia is now the second-largest agricultural importer after China among so-called emerging markets. Imports rose from $7 billion in 2000 to $33 billion in 2008, a U.S. Agriculture Department study reported. Contributing: The Des Moines Register
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2014 EU finished rice imports will decrease, exports will increase2014 EU finished rice imports will decrease, exports will increase 2014-09-02 14:11 | source: China Grain Network | according to the latest Counsellor's report released by the US Department of Agriculture's Overseas Agriculture Bureau, EU imports of finished rice in 2014 are expected to be 1.5 million tons, a decrease of about 9% from 1.37 million tons the previous year. Rice imports will be reduced to 1.4 million tons in 2015. Counsellor expects EU finished rice exports to be 300000 tons in 2014, an increase of 48% over the previous year. In 2015, the export volume of finished rice may decrease by about 33% to 200000 tons. Counsellor expects EU finished rice output to be 1.94 million tons in 2013/14, down 7% year on year. Finished rice production in 2014/15 is expected to be 1.97 million tons, up 1.5 percent.
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The dangers of cheap cornThe downsides of cheap corn By Roberto A. Ferdman August 13? The price is wrong. (Dean Hutton/Bloomberg News) This year hasn't been kind to the U.S. agricultural sector. Just ask John Deere, the world's largest manufacturer of farming machinery. The company reported a 15 percent plunge in profit for its fiscal third quarter compared with the previous quarter on Wednesday. After years of sustained growth, the company has now seen its sales fall in each of the first three fiscal quarters of 2014-and each time significantly. Tractor sales, which are often used as a barometer of agricultural sector health, have been especially weak in the United States. Deere's equipment sales fell by 6 percent in the third quarter, and are expected to tumble by another 8 percent in the fourth quarter. And next year isn't likely to prove any more promising. Deere is already forecasting an even tougher 2015-the company expects to sell even fewer tractors than it will by the end of 2014. The struggles of one of the country's largest farming equipment suppliers isn't so much an isolated business dip as it is an ailment emblematic of the farming industry at large. America's entire agricultural sector, as it happens, is having a pretty mediocre 2014 (and equally mediocre feeling about 2015, for that matter). Industry-wide sales are slated to fall by more than 6 percent this year. And U.S. farmer profits are expected to plummet by nearly 27 percent in 2014 after several years of historic highs, according to USDA estimates from earlier this year. The dip is almost entirely due to pinched crop sales, which are expected to fall by more than 12 percent this year, after falling by just over 3 percent in 2013. If that holds, U.S. crops will generate just under $190 billion in 2014, or almost $35 billion less than in 2012. But American corn and soybean farmers aren't suffering because they're struggling to grow corn and soybeans; rather, they're seeing the repercussions inherent in producing too much of them. "If you look around the country, it's pretty hard to find a bad corn crop right now," Gregory Ibendahl, associate professor of agricultural economics, said in an interview. This year's corn crop, as it turns out, is going to be the largest in history, according to USDA estimates. The same is likely to be true of 2014's soybean output (paywall). "The problem is actually corn and other crop prices," Ibendahl said. "They're too low right now ." Healthy American harvests are driving prices down significantly. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices have fallen by 35 percent, 12 percent, and 13 percent, respectively, this year, and are forecast to fall even further in 2015. That's too cheap for American farmers' liking. In some cases, the weak prices are even causing farmers to sit on their produce until prices improve. "Either through permanent or temporary storage, you're going to see huge quantities going into storage," Scott Irwin, professor of agricultural and consumer economics at University of Illinois, told the Associated Press on Wednesday. In others, farmers are selling their crop, but at severely discounted rates that border on being unprofitable. Broadly speaking, record harvests are rarely bad news. "As a farmer, you can't do anything about prices," Ibendahl said. "All you can do is try to produce as much as you can in any given year." Large stockpiles of corn today should give way to commensurately large cash piles of profit down the road, even if it means storing much of it until prices recover. But low prices can be devastating, especially if they sustain themselves over long periods of time. "If you're a farmer facing continual low prices, you might have to take some land out of production." Ibendahl said. "Somewhere along the line you might even reach a point where you have to go out of production ." The U.S. farming sector is not quite there yet-the point at which those farms that are most affected can no longer afford to stay in business-but that doesn't mean there isn't potential for such a scenario. "I think it [low prices] will continue for a lot longer than most people think it will," Ibendahl said. American farmers certainly hope that doesn't prove to be the case; nor do tractor manufacturers like Deere.
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Japan's Agricultural Dilemma~~Japan's Agriculture Dilemma Achieving large-scale agriculture is an imperative, yet political opposition is formidable. clint By Clint Richards September 02, 2014 An article in the Yomiuri Shimbun highlighting several new joint ventures between agricultural cooperatives and Japanese businesses directly points at several problems with, and possible solutions to, Japan's agricultural industry. More than any other sector in Japan, farmers and fishers will feel the effects of Japan's eventual population decline first, as most people who work in these industries are already advanced in age. Additionally, Japanese agricultural is notoriously inefficient, lacking economies of scale due to the small size of mostly family-run holdings. In the prefecture of Chiba just next to Tokyo, farming is in decline as farmers age and the number of abandoned plots increases. A new subsidiary of Sojitz Corp. called My Vegetable Corp, has begun large-scale cultivation of greenhouse vegetables, operating on 10,000 square meters of land that is expected to grow to 30,000 meters in three years. Once My Vegetable is able to develop its sales, it expects to have 200,000 square meters of “convenience store-style farms” across Japan in 10 years. Aside from achieving scale production that would reduce the number of farmers needed, the cultivation beds are raised 80cm off the ground, enabling older farmers to work without extensive bending and lifting. In the fishing industry, meanwhile, a Mitsubishi Corp. affiliate called Toyo Reizo Co., is farming blue fin tuna. With three farms producing 300 tons of fish in fiscal 2014, it has already increase production by a factor of ten since fiscal 2013. Toyo is also working with Nagasaki Takashima Fisheries Center, jointly funded by the public and private sectors, which incubates eggs that Toyo later raises. The farm on Goto Island also employs fisherman from the local cooperative, who feed the tuna the smaller fish from their catches. The adult tuna are raised for three years and reach 30kg or more. Enterprises like this between large Japanese companies and agricultural cooperatives are what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to establish on a much larger scale, as both the area of land cultivated in Japan and the number of workers has declined significantly, with the ratio of those over 65 reaching 57.4 percent in 2005. Large-scale production would make the sector more competitive in general, and thus less vulnerable to competition in trade deals like the proposed TPP. In June the LDP announced it wanted non-food companies to be able to increase their share in agricultural companies from 25 to 50 percent. However, JA-Zenchu, which represents most agricultural cooperatives, largely opposes such reform. Although the government has proposed removing JA's ability to manage regional cooperatives, this is likely to be a difficult, long-term process, as JA and its cooperatives form a significant portion of the LDP's political base. Interestingly, many of these ventures are looking to market their products not only domestically but also overseas, anticipating potential demand for Japan's food products, which are perceived as healthier and safer (particularly in China). Significant agricultural reform is unlikely as Japan's participation in TPP negotiations flounders. Nonetheless, continued progress on partnerships between cooperatives and Japan's large corporations will eventually make the agricultural sector more efficient, an imperative for the nation as its farming population shrinks.