The sown area of corn in the United States may be lower than the forecast value in March.

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the sown area of corn in the United States may be lower than the forecast value in March.

2014-06-20 09:59 |
source: China Grain Network |
the USDA will release its quarterly grain inventory report on June 30, along with a report on plantings. Darrell Goode, an agricultural economist at Illinois State University in the United States, said that these two important reports will set the tone for the corn market, because then the corn crop will enter a critical growth stage. Given that corn futures prices have fallen by more than 40 cents a bushel, or nearly 9 percent, in the past month, these two reports are of particular interest to the market this year, as unexpected data could lead to intense volatility in the corn market.

In terms of the sown area report, the USDA's sowing intention survey report released in March showed that the sown area of corn in the United States will reach 91.691 million acres this year, 3.674 million acres less than in 2013. After the release of this report, the market speculated that the actual sown area would exceed the intended level, because the total crop sown area data in the report may be under-reported, that is, the actual total sown area is higher.

However, due to the late planting of corn in the northern part of the United States this year and the stronger trend of soybean price than corn price in the late planting season, this means that the soybean planting area in the above areas may be higher than the US planting intention data in March, and the abandoned farmland area may also exceed the forecast level in March, which means that the corn planting area may be lower than the planting intention data in March.

Although the June report will include intended data on unplanted areas, the reported area data should be close to the actual area data released at the end of this year. Unless there is a significant difference between the data reported in June and the planting intention data in March, the market's forecast for corn production will continue to change around factors such as weather and yield expectations. Considering that the crop progress weekly report released by the US Department of agriculture in the latest week shows that the excellent and good rate of corn has reached 76%, the best level in the same period in 20 years, the market expects that the corn yield per unit area this year will reach the historical average level or exceed the trend line level. (Source: Boyi Master)