(United States) Reciprocal Tariff Cuts Take Effect; Soybeans Remain Excluded

Global Agricultural Watch Issue 1 | Current Observation: United States | October 1, 2026

On September 28, the Ministry of Commerce of China and the White House of the United States simultaneously announced a list of reciprocal tax reductions of about US $30 billion each for "non-sensitive goods", totaling about US $60 billion, and tariffs on more than 90% of goods were reduced to the most-favored-nation tax rate. Corn, wheat, sorghum and other U.S. agricultural products were selected, but soybeans are not on the list and still face a 10% tariff increase.

1. policy background

China suspended purchases of U.S. soybeans for nearly five months in June 2025 and resumed in late October. U.S. Department of Agriculture data show that the 2025/26 market annual U.S. soybean exports fell 18.2 percent year-on-year, while shipments to China fell 45 percent to 12.4 million tons. At the end of October 2025, the two sides reached a one-year trade truce in Busan, South Korea, which was originally scheduled to expire on November 10, 2026. In May this year, the White House said China agreed to purchase at least 25 million tons of US beans and at least US $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028. On September 24, the heads of state of China and the United States held their second meeting this year in Washington. The economic and trade teams of the two countries subsequently negotiated and reached a consensus on reciprocal tax cuts and the extension of the truce. The Commerce Department said the extension of the truce provided space for subsequent consultations.

Key points of 2. list

Tax reduction method. The two sides each recommended a list of about US $30 billion. Based on 2024 import data, about 90% of their commodities will no longer be subject to additional tariffs and will be levied at the most-favored-nation tax rate. It is expected to be implemented simultaneously, but no effective time has been announced. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, this could lead to improved market access for about 30 percent of U.S. exports to China.

List of Chinese. More than 1600 commodities are involved, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy products, vegetable oil and oil meal (including soybean oil and soybean meal), and tariffs on fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics, medical devices, etc.; the trade volume of agricultural products and related products in 2024 is about 17 billion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to China's annual purchase commitment of 17 billion US dollars. Non-seed soybeans are not included, 10% of the tariff is retained, and the combined tax burden after the 3% MFN tariff is about 13%, while Brazilian soybeans are only about 3%. The American Soybean Association (ASA) believes that the elimination of tariffs can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans.

U.S. list and mechanism arrangements. The U.S. list covers Chinese consumer goods such as toys, small appliances, tableware, bedding, holiday decorations, and child safety seats. The two sides will set up a China-US Trade Council to promote "30 billion-to -30 billion" reciprocal tax cuts, and set up an agricultural working group to meet for the first time before the end of the year; the truce will be extended to January 10, 2027; and the energy sector will only involve coal.

3. Influence on China and Observation Points

First, the cost of feed grain imports is expected to fall, but the actual pull or limited. After the restoration of the most-favored-nation tax rate for corn, wheat and sorghum, the cost disadvantage of grain sources in the United States has narrowed significantly, while the domestic pig stock has contracted, feed consumption has weakened, and the elasticity of import demand has declined.

Second, soybeans remain off the list, and short-term purchases may still be dominated by state-owned channels. China has purchased more than 12 million tons, close to half of its annual commitment. Industry insiders report that the 10% tariff makes it difficult for private crushing enterprises to absorb it. Even if the tariff is abolished, the CIF price of US-Pakistan soybeans is roughly the same (about US $595/ton). Some analysts believe that the soybean will be treated separately, leaving room for China's follow-up consultations.

Third, as of July 2026, Brazil accounted for 72.1 percent of China's soybean imports, the logistics and contractual arrangements formed by the abundance of South America have strong inertia, and the global oil and grease pattern will not be quickly reversed. Tax reduction is good for domestic vegetable oil refining and feed processing enterprises to control the cost of raw materials.

Follow-up can be observed: whether the first meeting of the Agricultural Working Group before the end of the year touches on soybean tariffs; changes in the pace of Chinese procurement and the participation of state-owned and private enterprises; extension arrangements before the expiration of the truce on January 10, 2027; and planting decisions by U.S. farmers to 2027 the planting season.

Source: The official website of the Ministry of Commerce of China, the list of tax reductions published by the White House and the Office of the Trade Representative (USTR); Reuters, NBC News, "World Grain" (World Grain), etc., September 28-30, 2026. Compilation: Secretariat of China Foreign Agricultural Economic Research Association.