(Brazil) Brazil's soybean production hits new high, share of exports to China continues to rise

Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released its fifth production survey of the year on February 13. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 will reach 0.16601 billion tons, up 12.4 percent year-on-year, another record high. The USDA's caliber is 0.169 billion tons. The high yield is mainly due to the recovery of yield and the continued expansion of sown area.

The survey showed that this year's soybean yield in Brazil was 3499kg/ha, an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year; the sown area was 47.45 million hectares, an increase of 2.8 percent over the same period last year, the lowest increase in six years, indicating that the kinetic energy of area expansion has weakened and more increase comes from yield restoration.

On the export side, USDA expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach a record level of around 0.105 billion tons this year. China is the world's largest soybean importer. In recent years, imports from Brazil accounted for about 70% of China's total soybean imports; Brazil's soybean's main position in China has been further consolidated, and the share of US soybeans in the Chinese market has continued to shrink.

Brazil's high-yield landing has suppressed global oilseed prices and intensified the game between China, the United States and Brazil in soybean trade: abundant supply in South America has increased China's purchasing options, while U.S. farmers are under pressure from increased competition in export markets. The market will then focus on the progress of harvesting and shipment in Brazil, as well as the pace of China's procurement in the new season.

Source: CONAB 5th Production Survey, Brazil; USDA; China Customs, February 2025.