(U. S.) U. S.-China tariff war escalates again, U.S. agricultural exports to China blocked

After the United States announced on April 2 that it would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on its trading partners, including China, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China issued an announcement on April 4 to counter the system: starting from 12: 01 on April 10, a 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods originating in the United States on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate. Overlaid with the 10-15% tariff on about $21 billion of U.S. agricultural products that took effect in March, the cost of U.S. agricultural products entering the Chinese market has risen significantly.

Soybeans and sorghum are the most impacted categories in the United States. U.S. agricultural exports to China were $29.25 billion in 2024, down significantly from $42.8 billion in 2022; about half of U.S. soybean exports went to China. China has simultaneously suspended the qualifications of some U.S. companies for sorghum and other products exported to China.

The anxiety of the American agricultural community is concentrated. Many industry organizations, such as the American Soybean Association, called on the government to resolve differences through negotiations with China, pointing out that farmers "cannot afford to lose the Chinese market again"; during the last round of trade war, US soybean exports to China shrank sharply, and the government finally had to spend tens of billions of dollars to subsidize farmers.

Analysts pointed out that compared with 2018, China's dependence on U.S. agricultural products has declined significantly, and the high yield of South American soybeans has provided China with sufficient alternative sources; while U.S. farmers are also facing the double squeeze of high agricultural costs and low agricultural prices during the same period. The negotiation window and time cost are becoming the key variables in this round of the game.

Source: State Council Tariff Commission Bulletin; Reuters; American Soybean Association, April 2025.