(United States) Soybean Futures Hit a Three-Year High as China Buys the New Crop

In late August 2026, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures price rose above $12.6 a bushel, once approaching $13, a new high since December 2023. At the same time, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) continuously confirmed export sales to China: 488000 tons on August 3, 238000 tons on August 7, 244000 tons on August 12, and 333000 tons on August 26, all of which were delivered in the 2026/27 market year. This means that after the stagnation of procurement in 2025, China's bookings for new US soybeans have restarted.

The upward price support comes from both sides of supply and demand. On the demand side, China's procurement volume is obviously large, and state-owned enterprises play a major role in it. On the supply side, USDA's August supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 52.7 bushels per acre in 2026/27, with a production forecast of 4.52 billion bushels. In late August, the excellent and good crop rate dropped from 61% to 60%. In addition, China's main soybean producing areas encountered extreme high temperatures and heavy rainfall during the growing period, threatening quality and yield, which may further push up import dependence. Record production expectations constitute a reverse suppression, limiting the upside of prices.

It should be pointed out that China still retains a 10% counter-tariff on U.S. soybeans, and the combined tax burden after the MFN tax rate is significantly higher than that of South American sources, so commercial buying continues to shift to Brazil. The USDA Overseas Agriculture Bureau report shows that Brazil's shipments to China from June to August 2026 hit a record high for the same period, and China's domestic profits are still negative. This means that the current round of U.S. soybean purchases is more of a policy procurement tinge-the market generally links it to the Chinese procurement arrangement disclosed by the U.S. side after the meeting in Kayama in October 2025, but the arrangement has not been formally confirmed by the Chinese side so far, and the pace of implementation has become the biggest uncertainty in the market.

There are three follow-up observation points: first, whether the U.S. harvest season output can meet the USDA forecast, second, whether the continuity of China's reserve procurement and tariff adjustment, and third, the progress of Brazil's new planting and its quotation competitiveness.

Source: USDA export sales report and August supply and demand report; Chicago Board of Trade quotes; Reuters, August 2026.