Li Chunding and Liu Hongru: The impact of global pattern changes on agricultural trade and countermeasures.

Members' work

Li Chunding Liu Hongru

college of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University

abstract

changes in the global landscape have become one of the biggest variables in agricultural trade. On the one hand, the intensification of the game between China and the United States has triggered the transfer effect of China's agricultural trade. The new Trump administration has imposed tariffs on China, which makes the Sino-US trade friction potentially escalate, and the Sino-US agricultural trade faces new challenges. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts in some areas, especially the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Palestine and Israel, have had a profound impact on the global trade of agricultural products. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the obstruction of food exports and has severely damaged countries that rely on Russian and Ukrainian food exports. Although the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is relatively small, it may still cause fluctuations in agricultural prices, which in turn threatens the stability of global agricultural trade. Geopolitical conflicts threaten the stability of China's agricultural trade through various ways, such as the obstruction of international trade, the rising cost of agricultural materials, trade and policy risks. In order to meet the challenges, China needs to form a joint force from both domestic and foreign perspectives, strengthen agricultural supply-side structural reform, optimize production structure and layout, and improve production efficiency. At the same time, promote the diversification of agricultural import sources, deepen international cooperation, and work together to build a more inclusive, innovative and sustainable "re-globalized" agricultural trading system.

Keywords

global pattern change; Sino-US power game; local geo-conflict; agricultural trade; food security

source: World Agriculture 2026 No. 3 (Total No. 563), pp. 14-24.