Wang Lulu et al.: Study on the mechanism of the impact of agricultural productive services on greenhouse gas emissions -- causal inference based on dual ML.

Wang Lu Lu Lu Jie Zhang Junyan

college of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University

abstract

as an important way for small farmers to connect with modern agriculture, agricultural productive services play an important role in breaking through the constraints of resources and environment and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture. Exploring the impact of agricultural productive services on greenhouse gas emissions and its internal mechanism is essential for China to achieve the "double carbon" goal. Based on the field research data of 894 corn growers in the three northeastern provinces, the paper uses the life cycle evaluation method to measure agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and constructs a dual ML model framework to empirically test the impact of agricultural productive services on agricultural greenhouse gases. The model overcomes many strict specific conditions of the traditional causal inference model and solves the problem of "dimension curse. The results show that:(1) agricultural productive services can significantly inhibit agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and this conclusion is still valid after a variety of robustness tests, which mainly achieves the "emission reduction effect" through indirect paths such as the scale effect of land transfer, the technical effect of conservation tillage and the substitution effect of agricultural labor;(2) in terms of geographical regions, the emission reduction effect of agricultural productive services on the central and western regions of the three northeastern provinces is more significant; as far as the income level of food crops is concerned, agricultural productive services have a more significant effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions for farmers with higher food income levels;(3) From the perspective of different production service links, tillage, sowing and fertilization are more effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Based on this, the important role of agricultural productive services in China's agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction action is proposed, which provides scientific policy enlightenment for continuing to strengthen the construction of agricultural productive services and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture.

Keywords

agricultural productive services; greenhouse gas emissions; dual ML model; life cycle assessment

source: China's Agricultural Resources and Regionalization, No. 5, 2026.