Li Chunding et al.: New Quality Productivity Empowers China's Economic Leapfrog Growth: Experience and Direction

Li Chunding Ye Xiao Feng Li Ning Jing Luo Yuze

college of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University; Department of Foreign Economic Research, Development Research Center of the State Council

abstract

new quality productivity is a new driving force and new advantage to promote high-quality economic development and realize China's economic growth by leaps and bounds. This paper systematically analyzes the experience and direction of China's economic growth from the three dimensions of index system construction, data measurement analysis and quantitative simulation of global general equilibrium structure. The measurement results show that in recent years, the new qualitative characteristics of China's productive forces have been highlighted as a whole, and the new qualitative productivity has taken shape. Regression analysis shows that the continuous accumulation of new qualitative characteristics in productivity, that is, the development of traditional productivity to new qualitative productivity has significantly promoted economic growth, which is an important factor in promoting China's "growth miracle. The results of the quantitative simulation of the global general equilibrium structure model show that:(1) the mechanism of the influence of the new quality productivity and its decomposition dimension on economic growth is consistent with the results of the measurement analysis. (2) Looking to the future, according to the IMF's forecast of economic growth, China's per capita GDP will reach 23000 US dollars in 2050; if the average economic growth rate of the past decade is maintained, China's per capita GDP will reach 33000 US dollars in 2050. (3) Under the IMF's forecast growth rate, the development targets for 2035 and 2050 cannot be achieved by relying solely on the growth level of new qualitative features in the past productivity. Achieving the 2035 and 2050 targets requires an average annual acceleration of 3% of new qualitative productivity growth. The conclusion of this paper shows that the development of new quality productivity is at the right time and is the core driving force for China's economic growth by leaps and bounds.

Keywords

new quality productivity; economic growth; technological breakthrough; factor allocation; industrial upgrading

reference: Finance and Trade Economics, Volume 47, No. 6, 2026, pp. 24-42.