World Agriculture
Developments, trade, data, and topics in world agriculture
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IGC expects global rice production of 0.4782 billion tonnes in 2014/15IGC expects global rice production of 0.4782 billion tonnes in 2014/15 2014-09-03 09:22 | source: China Grain Network | according to the latest report released by the International Grains Council (IGC), the global rice production in 2014/15 is expected to be 0.4782 billion tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 0.4763 billion tons. Global rice imports are expected to be 40.4 million tons, up from 39.9 million tons the previous year. The global ending stock of rice in 2014/15 is expected to be 0.1054 billion tons, down from 0.1095 billion tons in the previous year. (Source: Master Boyi)
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GM cultivation in Europe: A decade of legal battle~~GMO cultivation in Europe: A decade of legal battles Published: 08/08/2014 - 09:58 The European Union has agreed on a new approach to the cultivation of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) which allows member states to ban or restrict GMOs in their territory. The agreement should mark the end of a decade of legal problems, but in the context of ongoing EU-US free trade negotiations, vocal GMO opposition from member states and civil society is unlikely to subside. The European Union has the strictest rules on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) in the world. After a decade of legal battles, the European Union reached an agreement in June 2014, allowing its member states to restrict or ban GMO crops in their territory. The new president of the Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has backed the new comprehensive legal framework which will give EU member states a legal basis they have been wanting for years. The EU regulatory system is based on tight safety standards and freedom of choice for consumers and farmers. The tools used to ensure freedom of choice are effective labelling and traceability. There are two key rules which govern GMOs in the EU (link to overview): a directive used for the authorisation of GMO products in EU and regulation used on food and feed made from GMO products that have been authorised.
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Pakistan's finished rice output to exceed 7 million tons~ ~ pakistan's finished rice output to exceed 7 million tons 2014-08-29 10:05 | source: China Grain Network | pakistan's National Reserve Bureau (SUPARCO) said that Pakistan's finished rice output is expected to exceed 7 million tons in 2013/14 (July to June of the following year). The planting of rice in Pakistan was completed in early July and the rice crop has entered the heading stage. Rice planting in Basmati will be completed by mid-August. Based on data from the Pakistan Rice Exporters Association, Pakistan's Basmati rice export output value reached US $0.846 billion in fiscal year 2013/14. The USDA expects Pakistan to produce 6.6 million tons of rice in 2013/14 and 6.7 million tons in 2014/15. (Source: Master Boyi)
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German minister calls on Europeans to spend more to weaken impact of Russian import ban~ ~ German Minister Urges Europeans to "Eat! "to Offset Russian Import Ban Reuters Sep. 02 2014 16:22 Michael Morrow / Flickr Germany's agriculture minister urged Europeans to eat fruit "every morning, five times a day, full stop ." . Europeans should eat more fruit and vegetables to remedy the impact of Russian restrictions on food imports from the West, Germany's agriculture minister said on Tuesday. "Eat! You should eat, I should eat, we should eat," the minister, Christian Schmidt, told German radio. Europe faces disruption to food markets from import restrictions imposed by President Vladimir Putin, although Schmidt said the situation was manageable. The one-year Russian embargo, in retaliation for Western economic sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine, affects meat, fish, dairy, fruit and vegetables from the United States, European Union and others. "You cannot lament the fact that there is lots of fruit and then not eat fruit, that much is obvious. I need to get rid of it," Schmidt said in the interview with Deutschlandfunk. He was due to meet the French and Polish farm ministers in Bonn later on Tuesday to prepare for an EU meeting on Friday to address the impact of the Russian import ban. Schmidt said he was looking for alternative markets for produce like German apples in areas like South America and China, saying: "Russia is not the only country in the world that needs apples ." In the meantime, he urged Europeans to eat fruit "every morning, five times a day, full stop ." See also: Russian Food Watchdog Stops Imports of Banned EU Fruit Via Belarus
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Farmers switching to soybeans puts pressure on DuPont~ ~ Soybean Shift Pressures DuPont Chemical and Agricultural Company's Net Rose 3.9%, Though Operating Earnings Fell Updated July 22, 2014 4:23 p.m. ET Farmers' preference for planting soybeans over corn will continue to challenge DuPont Co. DD +0.60% , one of the world's largest sellers of high-tech seeds, executives said Tuesday. Plunging corn prices, weighed down by last year's record U.S. corn harvest and expectations for another bumper crop this year, are encouraging farmers in North and South America to reduce their corn acreage, cutting into DuPont's main line of seeds. DuPont's second quarter was hurt by lower-than-expected sales of corn seed. Bloomberg "If the current market environment persists, the shift in acres toward soybeans, that can temper our volume in the short term for the seed business," said James Borel, DuPont's executive vice president in charge of its agriculture business, on a conference call Tuesday discussing the company's second-quarter earnings. Profits at the Wilmington, Del., chemical and agricultural company climbed 3.9% over the period, though operating earnings fell due to lower profits from the seed business. DuPont shares fell 0.9% to $64.95 on Tuesday. The stock is up 0.6% this year. The company last month lowered its earnings guidance for the year, primarily because of softer corn-seed and herbicide sales, and seed inventory write-downs. Corn makes up about half of DuPont's seed business, according to analyst estimates. DuPont said its second-quarter agriculture sales were $3.62 billion, roughly flat with the year-earlier period. Operating earnings in the segment were $836 million, an 11% decline from the year-ago quarter. The company also reported a $263 million restructuring charge partly tied to planned layoffs as DuPont realigns the company to focus more closely on agriculture and nutrition. DuPont anticipates global staff reductions "in the low single digits, on a percentage basis, across our businesses and functions," a spokesman said Tuesday. DuPont employed about 64,000 people at the end of 2013. U.S. agricultural companies are weighing their prospects as North American farmers raise another bountiful corn crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week reported that the domestic corn crop was in its best condition in a decade for this point in the growing season. Benevolent weather also boosts the odds of a huge soybean harvest. The USDA estimated recently that growers would plant a record 84.8 million acres with the oilseeds this year, while dialing back acres planted with corn. Farmers in Latin America are expected to continue a similar shift in the Southern Hemisphere over the coming months, Mr. Borel told analysts Tuesday. The abundance of grain and oilseeds expected to hit the market this autumn has pushed corn futures prices 25% lower over the past 12 months, while soybean prices have declined 17%. For seed and chemical companies, big crops have a mixed effect. While the cost of producing seeds to sell in upcoming seasons typically declines, lower crop prices leave farmers with less money to spend on farm supplies like seeds, chemicals and fertilizer. Farmers, for example, may be less willing to buy the newest versions of genetically engineered seeds. "Another strong harvest in North America, if realized, will continue to pressure overall economics for corn and soybean farmers," Mr. Borel said. The crop shift comes as DuPont is pivoting away from lower-growth commodity businesses toward higher-growth areas, such as nutritional products and agriculture. As part of the effort, DuPont last year said it plans to spin off its performance-chemicals segment, which makes materials for nonstick frying pans and house paints. DuPont reported a profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.15 a share, up from $1.03 billion, or $1.11 a share, a year earlier. Excluding certain items, operating earnings fell to $1.17 from $1.28 a share. Net sales slipped 1.4% to $9.71 billion. The company in June had projected second-quarter operating earnings moderately below the $1.28 a share posted for the year-earlier period. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected per-share profit of $1.17 and revenue of $9.79 billion. The company reiterated its full-year outlook for operating earnings of $4.00 to $4.10 a share, and said its board has approved a 4% increase for its quarterly dividend to 47 cents a share, the third dividend increase in a little over two years. Write to Jacob Bunge at jacob.bunge@wsj.com and Anna Prior at anna.prior@wsj.com
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US to start $10 billion rural investment fund~ ~ White House to Begin $10 Billion Rural Investment Fund By ALEXANDRA STEVENSON July 24, 2014 12:01 amJuly 24, 2014 1:25 pm 3 Comments Photo Tom Vilsack, the agriculture secretary, greeting Carlen Overby, left, whose well in Farmersville, Calif., went dry. California would be an area of investment. Tom Vilsack, the agriculture secretary, greeting Carlen Overby, left, whose well in Farmersville, Calif., went dry. California would be an area of investment.Credit Juan Villa/Visalia Times Delta, via Associated Press Wall Street is looking for ways to invest in America's heartland, and the government is ready to play matchmaker. The White House Rural Council will announce plans on Thursday to start a $10 billion investment fund that will give pension funds and large investors the opportunity to invest in agricultural projects. Those include wastewater systems, energy projects and infrastructure development in rural America. “We're the eHarmony.com of infrastructure and business investment," the agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, said, referring to the online dating service. “We're going to be a connector," he added. “This is a new role for the U.S. Department of Agriculture ." The fund, called the Rural Infrastructure Opportunity Fund, will be backed by CoBank, a cooperative bank and a member of the Farm Credit System, a government-sponsored network of banks that lend to the agriculture industry. CoBank has committed the first $10 billion to the fund. Capitol Peak Asset Management, an investment firm, will manage the fund's investments and the Agriculture Department will help find projects for the fund. Investors will be able to make debt and equity investments in individual and bundled projects. They will earn returns on their principal investments along with interest. The move comes as pension funds and institutional investors, faced with few investment opportunities that yield high returns in the face of low interest rates, have begun to shift large amounts of money into less traditional investments that promise bigger returns like hedge funds and private equity firms. Flows into the hedge fund industry from institutional investors are at all-time highs. Faced with what he described as “extraordinary” demand from local communities in rural America for capital, Mr. Vilsack last year enlisted the help of Matthew McKenna, a former executive at PepsiCo, to help find a way to attract Wall Street and large institutional investors. Through the process, Mr. McKenna discovered that investors with big war chests were interested in making investments in more than just one or two individual projects at a time. As a result, the fund will offer investors the opportunity to put money into bundled projects. One specific area where investment is needed is in California, Mr. Vilsack said, where the state is facing one of its most severe droughts on record. “There is a business opportunity there because people will pay for water," he added. Since the 2008 financial crisis, large pools of pension money have flowed directly into farmland and agricultural investments. Some Wall Street investors are trying their hand at creating different ways to tap demand from both large pensions funds and individual investors. One group of investors has begun to buy farmland through real estate investment trusts - including the American Farmland Company, Farmland Partners and the Gladstone Land Corporation - that combine crops and land into an asset class for ordinary investors to buy. So strong is the demand from some corners of the financial world that agricultural conferences once attended mostly by farmers and others in related fields are now crowded with institutional investors, venture capitalists and hedge fund managers. Mr. Vilsack will announce the new Rural Infrastructure fund on Thursday at a conference in Washington. Nearly 600 financial executives, investors and government officials have convened for the White House's Rural Opportunity Investment Conference. The list of speakers for the event includes Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew and Ken Wilson, vice chairman of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.
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Japan and the United States to restart agricultural tariffs and auto negotiations~ ~ Japan, U.S. resume series of talks on farm tariffs, autos Kyodo Jul 15, 2014 WASHINGTON - Officials from Japan and the United States resumed a series of meetings Monday to discuss tariffs on agriculture produce under the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, as well as the bilateral trade of cars. The Japanese and U.S. officials followed up a meeting of chief negotiators with the 12-country TPP initiative, which ended Saturday in Ottawa without any breakthroughs on the current impasse. Hiroshi Oe, Japan's deputy chief TPP negotiator, and Wendy Cutler, acting deputy U.S. trade representative, began a two-day meeting Monday on the long-standing issue of Japan's demands to maintain exceptional tariffs on some of its farm products under the deal. One of the sticking points in the Japan-U.S. negotiations is Tokyo's tariffs on beef and pork. Japan has been considering lowering tariffs on beef and pork, and demanded the United States allow Tokyo to introduce safeguard measures to protect domestic producers. The measures would limit imports of the products should they surge under the TPP. Japan has also called for exceptional tariffs on rice, wheat, dairy products and sugar. Japan and the United States are among the 12 nations working to strike a TPP deal that would cover some 40 percent of global economic output. The others are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. Following the talks on farm products, the Japanese and U.S. governments will begin three days of meetings Wednesday on the bilateral trade of automobiles in connection with the TPP. Takeo Mori, deputy director general of the Economic Affairs Bureau of the Foreign Ministry, and Cutler will discuss Washington's call for Tokyo to lift nontariff barriers such as regulatory standards in the hope that U.S. automakers can boost sales in Japan. The existing U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars and trucks are also expected to be on the agenda for that meeting. Meanwhile, the minister in charge of the TPP discussions, Akira Amari, said at a Tuesday news conference in Tokyo that the 12 TPP countries should aim to strike an deal before the end of this year, and that an agreement needs to be something “more detailed” than a broad pact. “We need to have an agreement that can be put before the Diet," Amari said. “Leaders of the 12 nations should share the notion that we will put as much effort as we can to seal a pact by the year's end. It is not desirable to let the negotiations go on for a long time ."
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U.S. Experiences GMO Labeling Storm~ ~ US storm over GM labelling GREGOR HEARD 29 Jul, 2014 02:00 AM All European countries and over 40 others require GM labels and so should the United States. A STORM has erupted in the small north-eastern US state of Vermont over a new law that will require food for human consumption to be labelled if it contains genetically modified (GM) material. The US Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) has filed a complaint in the US Federal District Court to overturn the law. The GMA claims the law is excessively costly, and that by doing the work on a state level, sets the precedent for multiple laws across different states, making it difficult for national grocery businesses. Within its submission to the court, the GMA said Vermont was acting out of its authority within the US constitution. However, Vermont's decision has won plaudits from Australian anti-GM campaigners. "We applaud Vermont's law to require the labelling of foods made using GM techniques and encourage other US states to follow suit," said Bob Phelps, Gene Ethics director. “All European countries and over 40 others require GM labels and so should the United States ." He said labelling information was an aside to debate over the safety of GM food, but allowed shoppers to make informed decisions Mr Phelps said labelling compliance would not be expensive for the food manufacturing sector.
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Vietnam exports 3.345 million tons of rice from January to July~ ~ vietnam exports 3.345 million tons of rice from January to July 2014-07-29 09:36 | source: China Grain Network | according to data released by the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam's rice exports from January 1 to July 22, 2014 were 3.345 million tons, a decrease of about 18% from 4.1 million tons in the same period last year. So far this year, the average export price of rice is US $432 per ton, FOB price, up about 1% from US $429 in the same period last year. Vietnam exported 355,543 tons of rice from July 1 to 22, down about 38% from July last year and 47% from June this year. The average export price of rice so far in July is US $435 per ton, up 5% from the same period last year and about 3% from the previous month.
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Global corn and wheat may move higher on demand boost~ ~ global corn and wheat may move higher on demand boost 2014-07-28 10:05 | source: China Grain Network | according to an article written by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguier, the general increase in global agricultural product inventories is the main cause of the significant decline in agricultural product prices in recent months. Among them, the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans in the new season are all close to the lowest level since 2010. Corn and wheat prices, if they continue to fall in the coming weeks and months, could spur improved demand and lay the groundwork for a price rebound. But the rebound in soybean futures prices may face pressure from exporters to sell stocks at rallies. The article points out that the harvest of winter wheat in the United States is coming to an end, and the pollination period of corn crops is in good condition. More and more traders and market participants believe that the supply situation of corn and wheat is basically a foregone conclusion, and the supply situation of corn and wheat will not change much from now to the autumn harvest. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the global ending inventory of corn in 2014/15 is slightly higher than 0.188 billion tons, and the global ending inventory of wheat is slightly lower than 0.19 billion tons, totaling more than 0.375 billion tons, which is the highest level since 2000. Ample stocks have prompted traders to turn their attention to the demand side, looking for signs of demand and guessing how large demand could help corn and wheat prices rebound. According to Ma Guier, livestock stocks, ethanol production and exports are the three pillars of corn demand, while domestic and global demand for wheat flour processing is the main consumption of wheat. By all accounts, the recent sharp fall in grain prices has boosted end-user profits. If prices continue to decline, corn and wheat demand is likely to show strong growth in the coming weeks and months. At the same time, American farmers are flush with cash, so they are not eager to sell corn or wheat at such low prices. Instead, it seems that farmers intend to take advantage of the rich storage network across the country so that they do not have to sell large-scale grain to the market. The sluggish pace of farmers' sales, coupled with improved end-user profits, will provide potential support to the corn and wheat markets and set the tone for a steady rebound in corn and wheat prices in the second half of 2014. In the case of soybeans, stocks held by major exporters are more important for price trends. With the U.S. soybean crop still not entering the critical bulging period, the selling pressure on the soybean market is much less than that on the corn and wheat markets. Although the price of corn in the new season has fallen by nearly 18% since the beginning of the year, the price of wheat in December has fallen by nearly 13%, and the price of soybean in November has fallen by less than 6% in the same period, because the market is still worried about the bad weather after the U.S. soybean crop enters the grain-bulging period in August. This means that exporters are the key to the future direction of soybean prices, as exporters will sell stocks when prices strengthen, which may limit the rebound momentum of soybean prices in the near to medium term.
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U.S. corn farmers face liquidity crunch: corn prices have fallen nearly 30 percent in the past March~ ~ U.S. Corn Farmers Face a Cash Crunch Prices Have Fallen Nearly 30% in Past Three Months Tumbling corn prices are sowing fears that many U.S. farmers will suffer their first losses in years and the agricultural economy could face its first sustained slump in a decade. Corn prices have plunged nearly 30% in the past three months to their lowest point since 2010 as near-perfect weather in the Midwest fuels expectations of a second consecutive bumper harvest. Prices of other crops have fallen sharply as well, with soybeans trading near 2½-year lows and wheat near four-year lows. Iowa farmer Doug Adams said he and his partner likely will try to renegotiate their rent on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal The price-depressing glut of corn is benefiting companies that depend on grain for animal feed and other uses, including meatpackers, livestock farmers and ethanol producers. Shares of Tyson Foods Inc. TSN +2.58% have soared 47% in the past 12 months, while rival chicken processor Pilgrim's Pride Corp. PPC -1.45% has gained 95%. Shares of Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM -0.10% , which processes grain into ethanol, corn syrup and other products, are up 34%. Lower global grain prices are helping consumers as well, especially in countries where the cost of bread and other staples accounts for a large share of spending. A monthly food-price index published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization declined for a third month in a row in June to the lowest since January, largely due to a marked drop in grain and vegetable-oil prices. The lower commodity costs could temper inflation in U.S. grocery aisles for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy, though few packaged-food companies are likely to cut prices, analysts said. But the slide in corn prices is expected to cut sharply into overall incomes in the U.S. Farm Belt because corn is the country's largest crop, grown on 350,000 farms and yielding about $60 billion in farmers' revenue last year. Now 57% off its record high in 2012, corn is trading well below the $4-a-bushel threshold generally required for farmers to earn profits. That means many growers this year likely will fail to cover their costs for the first time since 2006, according to agricultural economists. Signs of strain already are evident in the Midwest. Farmland values in some regions have begun to dip after a yearslong boom, and demand for farm equipment has slipped. Deere DE -0.19% & Co., the world's largest seller of farm equipment, reported a 9.5% decline in its second-quarter profit in May and said U.S. sales of farm and landscaping equipment would decline between 5% and 10% this year. Sales of tractors, seeds and other farm supplies are expected to suffer further as farmers keep dialing back spending. "A lot of money has evaporated," said Matt Bennett, who farms 3,000 acres in Windsor, Ill. "It's going to be hard not just on farmers, but also the guys who build sheds" and "sell pickup trucks ." Mr. Bennett, 39 years old, said he expects to make a profit this year because he already sold about half his expected crop for about $5 a bushel. But "margins will definitely get squeezed" and 2015 could be much tougher, he said. On Thursday, corn for September delivery, the front-month contract, fell 1 cent, or 0.3%, to $3.615 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. While the economic picture in the Farm Belt is worsening, economists and agricultural bankers said they aren't worried about severe shocks like the 1980s farm crisis because farmers carry relatively low debt levels and built up cash reserves during the recent boom. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated the level of operator debt relative to farm assets would fall to 10.5% this year, the lowest since 1954. Corn and soybean prices also could rebound somewhat if dry weather hits the Midwest late in the growing season, analysts said. But if favorable weather continues, corn futures could fall to $3.25 a bushel, estimates Mark Schultz, an analyst with brokerage Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. "This market will be in the doldrums this year and also into next year," he said. The USDA projected in February that net U.S. farm income would decline 27% this year, to $95.8 billion, the lowest since 2010. Because growing conditions have been exceptional since then, some agricultural economists and bankers say the income drop could be even steeper, and continue next year. U.S. farm income last fell for two years in a row in 2005 and 2006. Lower prices could temper inflation for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy. Iowa farmer Doug Adams checks his crop. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal The abundance of U.S. corn comes just two years after a severe drought damaged crops and sent prices to more than $8.31 a bushel. Before last year's 40% plunge, corn prices had hovered above $6 a bushel for most of the previous three years, boosted by rising demand from the ethanol industry and foreign markets such as China. U.S. farm incomes remained high last year, reaching $130.5 billion, the most on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1973. The USDA has projected this year's corn crop will total 13.86 billion bushels, just shy of last year's record 13.93 billion. Because costs for tractors, combines, land, fertilizer and seeds mostly increased along with crop prices in recent years, many corn growers face losses when corn prices drop below $4 a bushel. "It's a very different situation than we had a few years ago," said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. "We're talking about cutting net [financial] returns in half ." Bankers said they would take a cautious approach as they review farm loans after the growing season. "There's a good chance based on what we're seeing that we could be looking at further reduction of incomes in 2015," said Eric McRae, executive vice president with First Mid-Illinois Bank & Trust in Decatur, Ill. "If that happens, we may be looking at more stringent controls ." Growers who rent land to grow crops, which accounts for about 38% of U.S. farm acreage, face the biggest impact from lower prices as costs generally are higher than for producers who own their land, said Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. Doug Adams, a 39-year-old Iowa farmer, said he and his business partner likely will try to renegotiate the rent they pay on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year. "High cash rent is not going to be sustainable," said Mr. Adams, who has farmed since he graduated high school. "We can't rent farms and lose money year after year ." Write to Jesse Newman at jesse.newman@wsj.com and Tony C. Dreibus at tony.dreibus@dowjones.com
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Climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields~ ~ climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields 2014-07-29 09:24 | source: China Grain Network according to research published in the quarterly journal Environmental Research Letters published by the Royal Institute of Physics (IOP), although the global demand for food and fuel for corn and wheat will increase in the next 10 to 20 years, as climate change causes Temperature rise, the probability of corn and wheat yields falling will increase. David Lobell, deputy director of the Center for Food Safety and Environmental Research at Stanford University, and Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that due to climate change caused by human factors, the probability of a decline in corn yields is as high as 10%, and the probability of a decline in wheat yields is 5%. A statement issued by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado stated that if the impact of man-made climate change is excluded, the probability of a slowdown in crop yield growth will drop to about 1. The Tebaldi said that due to the impact of climate change, crop yields will not keep up with demand growth in the next 20 years. Until then, higher crop yields have helped to meet the growing global demand for food. In the context of population growth, any factor affecting yield growth is not conducive to the global food supply to meet demand, thus triggering global instability. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), corn and wheat yields are expected to increase by 13% every 10 years between now and 2030. Lobell and Tebaldi hope to find out whether rising global temperatures will reduce corn and wheat yields by 10% over the next 20 years. If this happens, it means that the increase predicted by FAO will be reduced by nearly half. The study found that every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature would result in a 7% reduction in corn yield growth and a 6% reduction in wheat yield growth. Corn crops are the most vulnerable to rising temperatures because they are more concentrated and therefore more vulnerable to climate change. Lobell says he is often asked whether climate change threatens the food supply, a question that is difficult to answer simply. What is certain is that the outlook for food supply over the next 10 to 20 years depends on how fast the earth's temperature rises. We cannot accurately predict the rate of global warming, all we can do is try to determine the probability of a rise in temperature. Lobell and Tebaldi said their study did not take into account the consequences of rising temperatures causing geographic shifts in corn and wheat farming. Regional shifts in corn and wheat yields, such as to cold, high-latitude regions with cooler growing seasons, could mitigate the impact of lower yields, they said. However, the study found that such adjustments take time and may not be able to change global corn and wheat production patterns in a timely and effective manner. For example, since 2000, the area planted with corn in North Dakota and South Dakota has increased by 50%, but its output is still less than 10% of the total output of the United States.
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Corn high yield in the hope of falling food prices~ ~ corn high yield in the hope of falling food prices 2014-07-28 09:26 | source: China Grain Network | in the week ending July 25, 2014, the global food market prices mostly fell, because the weather in the US corn producing areas was almost ideal and the corn yield was in sight. At the same time, corn prices have fallen sharply recently, attracting overseas buyers to purchase, restricting the price decline. On Friday, the September 2014 corn period on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about 363 cents per bushel, down 8.25 cents from a week ago. December corn closed at about 371.75 cents a bushel, down 6.75 cents from a week ago. US Bay's No.2 yellow corn export price averaged 456.50 cents per bushel, down from 461.75 cents per bushel a week ago. November corn futures for the European EURONEXT closed at 155 euros a tonne, down 8 euros from a week earlier. The purchase and sale price of corn delivered in Argentina in August 2014 was 182.08/193.89 USD per ton, compared with 186.80/192.71 USD a week ago, FOB price on the river. The January 2015 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2331 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan from a week ago. Let's look at the U.S. corn crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop progress report shows that so far, the rate of good corn crops in the United States has remained at an all-time high. As of July 20, the proportion of corn with excellent ratings was 76%, the same as a week ago, and higher than 63% in the same period last year. This week Lanworth, an analyst owned by Reuters, predicted an average U.S. corn yield of 172.8 bushels per acre in 2014, up from 172.1 bushels a week ago and 165.3 bushels currently expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Lanworth expects U.S. corn production to reach a record 14.6 billion bushels this year, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects U.S. corn production to be 13.86 billion bushels this year. From the perspective of demand, the price of corn in the United States has fallen sharply recently, hitting a four-year low, attracting overseas buyers to purchase in the market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that in the week ending July 17, U.S. net corn sales (including the old season and the new season) totaled 1.435 million tons, up 34% from 1.069 million tons last week. Among them, the sales volume of corn in the new season is as high as 1.1434 million tons, which is not only much higher than the 495000 tons last week, but also higher than the 40 to 600000 tons expected by analysts. 2013/14 2014/15 Total week ending July 10 573,700 495,000 1,068,700 week Ending July 17 291,500 1,143,400 1,434,900 in addition, U.S. farmers hoarding goods for sale also helped corn prices rebound from their current lows. Agricultural prices have risen sharply in recent years, and American farmers have plenty of money on hand, so they are not eager to sell corn at current prices, but wait for prices to rebound. In addition, the improved storage capacity of U.S. farms, including the use of giant white plastic bags common in the agricultural areas of Argentina's Pambas Plain to store corn, is much less expensive than traditional barns and can be stored for up to two years, which also helps farmers increase their bargaining power when dealing with grain giants such as Cargill. Other news included a July supply-and-demand report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showing that Canadian corn and barley production may be lower than earlier thought due to adverse weather. According to the report, Canada's barley production forecast for 2014/15 was lowered to 7.34 million tons, lower than last month's forecast of 7.7 million tons, but still higher than the previous year's forecast of 10.237 million tons. Canada's corn production in 2014/15 is expected to be 11.305 million tons, down from 12.375 million tons predicted last month and 14.194 million tons last year. In general, the main factor affecting corn prices in the near future is that the decline in corn prices has attracted improved demand, but the prospect of corn supply in the new season is still huge. It should be pointed out that although the demand for corn has improved, the large supply side of corn is currently the main factor affecting prices. Unless obvious weather problems in the United States and even the world cause corn yields and yields to be lower than earlier expected, it is difficult for improved demand for corn to support a sustained rebound in prices. After all, corn prices are only at low levels to stimulate cheap buyers to enter the market. Once prices go up, it is difficult for demand to remain strong. In particular, at present, the fund still holds a net long order of 70000 lots in the US corn futures market. Although it has decreased by nearly 45000 lots compared with a month ago, there is still room to continue to reduce its holdings, and it does not even rule out the possibility that the fund will overturn. At present, the fund has been in the soybean and wheat market to complete the more empty. Therefore, we are still not optimistic about the rebound in the corn market. Unless there is an unexpected change in the weather, any rebound will only provide the market with a new opportunity to sell.
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Organic farming is growing rapidly in Europe~ ~ Rapid Growth In Europe's Organic Farming Sector 7/24/2014 10:37 AM ET In the last decade, both the number of organic farms and the area dedicated to organic farming have grown by 50 percent or more in the European Union. Organic area in the EU increased by about 500 000 hectares per year. As a result there are more than 186 000 organic farms across Europe, cultivating an area of 9.6 million hectares, according to the latest Brief on organic farming published on Thursday by the European Commission. Based on an earlier 2013 report on organic farming , the brief provides an overview of areas and holdings, type of production and characteristics of organic farmers. Organic production patterns vary between EU Member States. However, across the EU, permanent pasture accounts for the biggest share of the organic area (about 45 percent) followed by cereals (around 15 percent) and permanent crops (about 13 percent). Organic animal production remains limited in comparison with the total animal production in the EU (about 1 percent). Organic farm managers tend to be younger than conventional farmers in the EU. In 2010, farmers younger than 55 represented 61.3 percent of the total in the organic sector but only 44.2 percent in non-organic agriculture. In the context of the sector's considerable and rapid growth, the Commission has proposed new updated and adjusted rules for the sector which are currently discussed with the European Parliament and the Council. by RTT Staff Writer For comments and feedback: editorial@rttnews.com
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California drought causes severe water shortages for agriculture~ ~ Calif. drought brings greatest agriculture water loss Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 8:59 a.m. EDT July 16, 2014 The drought in California - the third most severe on record - is responsible for the greatest water loss ever seen for the state's agriculture, and river water for Central Valley farms has been reduced by roughly one-third, according to a study out Tuesday from the University of California-Davis. However, "California's agricultural economy overall is doing remarkably well, thanks mostly to groundwater reserves," said Jay Lund, a co-author of the study and director of the university's Center for Watershed Sciences, which released the study. The entire state is in a drought. More than 36% is in "exceptional" drought, the worst level, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, a federal website that's updated weekly. The UC-Davis report found that direct costs to agriculture total about $1.5 billion (which include revenue losses of $1 billion and $0.5 billion in additional pumping costs). This net revenue loss is about 3% of the state's total agricultural value. Farmers in pockets of California hardest hit by the drought could begin to see wells run dry next year. "We expect substantial local and regional economic and employment impacts," Lund added. "We need to treat that groundwater well so it will be there for future droughts ." Other findings from the report: • The loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs related to agriculture due to the drought represents 3.8% of farm unemployment. • The drought is likely to continue through 2015, regardless of whether the climate pattern El Niño develops, which could provide needed rain and snow next winter. • Consumer food prices will be largely unaffected. Higher prices at the grocery store of high-value California crops such as nuts, wine, grapes and dairy foods are driven more by market demand than by the drought. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/07/15/california-drought-agriculture-water-loss/12687343/
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The first swine fever found in Europe~ ~ Europe's first case of swine fever outbreak at farm complex detected in Lithuania World July 24, 16:20 UTC 4 The Lithuanian state food and veterinary control service launched an investigation to establish how virus had appeared in the farm African swine fever confirmed at Poland-Belarus border MOSCOW, July 24 ./ITAR-TASS/. The outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in the Idavang farm in Lithuania is the first case in a farm complex in Europe, an aide of the head of the Russian federal veterinary and phytosanitary control service, Alexei Alexeyenko, has told ITAR-TASS. Before the outbreak, ASF cases were reported from private farms, he said. The Lithuanian state food and veterinary control service launched an investigation to establish how ASF virus had appeared in the farm. The main version was a human factor. The European Union veterinary service and the World Organization for Animal Health had not made any statement in this connection, he added. Alexeyenko told ITAR-TASS earlier that the Russian veterinary service planned to inform the WTO group of arbitrators about the case. The group was formed in the World Trade Organization on July 22, 2014 to consider the EU suit against Russia over the ban on pork supplies. The ASF outbreak was reported in the Idavang complex on Thursday, July 24. The Lithuanian veterinary service intended to eliminate 20,000 pigs from the farm. Russia since April 7, 2014, has banned imports of all meat products from Lithuania in connection with the ASF epidemic. African swine fever is not dangerous for humans, but very dangerous for wild and domestic pigs. The disease rapidly spreads among animals and causes serious damage to agriculture and economy on the whole.
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Those things about agriculture, rural areas and farmers in GermanyGermany's rural areas enjoy those things. Source: Yimu Tian News http://news.ymt360.com/show-9-693652-1.html enjoying the German countryside. Blue skies, endless fields, leisurely cattle and sheep, a clean and tidy small villages and towns ...... Water, electricity, communications, transportation everything. All parts of the German countryside are lawns and trees, and asphalt roads reach every household. It is said that one of the dreams of many Germans is to have a yard, raise horses, raise a few cows, and chickens and sheep. German farmers are happy. In Germany, when the farmer is not a simple matter, must carry on the agricultural education, the certificate. Germany implements the EU's "Common Agricultural Policy", the core of which lies in agricultural subsidies. According to statistics, about 40% of the income of German farmers comes from direct subsidies. Farmer amateur life is very leisurely the men are sitting on the side of the street drinking beer and chatting, or a few women are sitting in the courtyard "Kaffeeklatsch" (drinking coffee and chatting around 4 pm). Some people walk the dog, while others barbecue on the lawn. Every small town has its own festival, and even every small street has its own "street festival". Agriculture is advanced. Agricultural employees account for about 4% of the total labor force, and there are less than 600000 farmers. On average, each labor force feeds 124 people, and more than 80% of agricultural products can be self-sufficient; Germany is the world's largest exporter of agricultural machinery, and it is fully mechanized from sowing to harvesting. There are 1079 associations of various kinds and more than 10000 cooperatives of various kinds in the country. Germany has established the "German Farmers Association" with more than 300 regional organizations. More than 90% of farmers are affiliated to the association. The association provides farmers with various free services, from providing information to safeguarding the rights and interests of farmers. All inclusive. Germany's agricultural development is dominated by small and medium-sized family farms. 90% of farmers are engaged in breeding and general planting, and 10% of farmers are specialized households growing grapes, hops, fruits, vegetables and tobacco. Animal husbandry is an important source of income for most family farms in Germany, and the annual per capita income of each farmer is about 315000 yuan. Germany's agricultural profession is not good. In Germany, when the farmer is not a simple matter, must carry on the agricultural education, the certificate. At the age of 20, Zheim studied in agricultural technology school for three years, got the qualification of agronomist, and went to the United States for two years to obtain the qualification of economic manager. With two more years of work experience, he can be fully qualified. Only with the full teacher certificate can Zheim be qualified to continue his father's vineyard industry. Straw not burned in Germany feed warehouses, cattle barn, milking workshops, bio-power stations… the Germans have always followed the principle that straw is part of the natural value chain and has a place in the agricultural cycle. In the farm's straw, 1/4 is used for fodder, and the other 3/4 is used for laying the cow pen. After laying the cow pen, it is finally mixed with the cow's manure to become the fertilizer of the farm and fertile soil. (Editing: If so)
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Australia's rice or called the key to ensuring world food security~~Australian wild rice could hold key to global food security Wednesday 9 July 2014 11:26AM Australia's northern wetlands could soon play a leading role in global food production, as researchers look to native wild rice to overcome the diseases and production hurdles that plague domesticated varieties. Charlie McKillop joined the hunt for wild rice in the Top End. Wild rice is growing in abundance in wetlands across remote parts of northern Australia, particularly in far north Queensland. Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI) team leader Professor Robert Henry uses GPS coordinates to zero in on rice plots identified at several sites covering a 200 kilometre radius from Mareeba north to Lakefield national park near Cooktown. His excitement is palpable. We do have to come to understand how traditional people have used rice in the past... I think we need to go back and explore that with them. Professor Robert Henry, QAAFI This is the latest thing in rice,' he says. 'We've got quite a bit of international attention on the potential of the rices from this part of the world and they really are quite unexplored .' 'Botanically, north Queensland and northern Australia is not very well explored at this level .' Professor Henry is convinced these remote wetlands could hold the key to global food security. Not only is the diversity of species unique, but their uncontaminated genes offer hope in a world where over-cultivation has displaced many wild food sources. Despite returning to the far north on many occasions, Professor Henry continues to be amazed by the sheer abundance of rice. 'We do find it in many places, and some of it in very large populations, occasionally almost as far as the eye can see and that's extraordinary .' It's clear the veteran team leader has one eye on the past and the other on the future as he seeks to understand more about the attributes of a unique, but little-known native crop. 'We do have to come to understand how traditional people have used rice in the past and I think we need to go back and explore that with them, because with rice being so abundant in some areas, here it's clearly a food source that must have been used in the past .' As anyone who has grown rice well knows, disease is a constant worry, and the recent spectre of rice blast disease in Australia has presented new challenges for commercial breeding programs. Plant pathologist Andrew Geering says that is why ancient DNA found in Australian wild rice could be crucial to the industry's defence against disease. 'If our hypothesis is right, the rice blast disease and the wild rice here have been living together for thousands, if not millions of years .' 'Diseases in natural environments tend to reach some sort of equilibrium, where the disease doesn't kill the host population, but it just occurs at a very low level and that's probably because there's a diversity of resistance genes in the wild rice .' Wild rice researchers in the field in far north Queensland Image: Wild rice researchers undertake a search at Lakefield National Park in Cape York Peninsula (Supplied) 'The wild rice we've been looking at here is closely related to the domesticated rice and it can be interbred, so there is potential for the breeders to integrate any resistance genes .' Beyond the laboratory, the QAAFI team is very focused on the commercial potential of far north Queensland's wild rice. Is it realistic to expect that one day we might see a Mareeba Wetlands, Abattoir Swamp or Lakefield rice variety being served up on a plate? According to Dr Ian Chivers, it's definitely a possibility. He's embedded in the team, working on behalf of his company, Native Seeds, a seed developer and producer of Australian native grasses. 'There looks to be, on the face value, some opportunity with the material that's gained here, there's clearly a long way to go,' he says. 'I guess the big thing I 've learned as much as anything else, is how dependant they are on aquatic systems ... and that worries me to an extent, if we're going into a drying climate, as to whether we can use them or not .' 'I guess we don't know the quantum of the water that's required .' Dr Glen Fox, a cereal chemist, is keen to return to the lab to put his samples through a rigorous series of sensory evaluation trials, to assess the taste, palatability, appearance and nutritional qualities of the rice. 'It really has challenged our thinking about how we can take it to the next level, how we can potentially make it a commercial crop,' he says. 'We're interested in how we can get enough yield that we could actually produce enough for food; that's a challenge, but we think we can and we're quite excited about what we can do with it .'
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Thai rice exports up 52 percent year-on-year in first five months~ ~ thai rice exports up 52 percent year-on-year in first five months 2014-07-08 10:16 | source: China Grain Network | according to data released by the Thai Rice Exporters Association, Thailand exported 3.82 million tons of rice from January to May 2014, an increase of about 52% over the 2.51 million tons exported in the same period last year. In terms of market value, Thailand's rice exports earned about 63.076 billion baht in the first five months of this year, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. In US dollars, Thailand's rice exports earned about US $1.938 billion, up about 8% year-on-year.