OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035

This report, jointly released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, provides consistent forecasts of global, regional and national agricultural and fishery product markets over the next decade and is a benchmark for international agricultural market analysis. The report uses 2025 and previous data as a benchmark, and specifically uses Aglink-Cosimo models to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy, fertilizer and food markets in 2026. The core conclusions include: under stable conditions, global agricultural and fishery production is expected to increase by 13% in the next ten years; By 2035, global grain production will reach a record of 3.22 billion tons, mainly due to an annual increase of 0.9 per cent per unit area. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture rose by about 6.5 per cent over the same period, significantly slower than the growth rate of production. The total income per capita of the agricultural labor force will increase by 9% by 2035, but due to market fluctuations, the probability of income falling below the current level in 2035 is as high as 25%. The report highlights the critical role of open, rules-based multilateral agricultural trade for global food security.

Original link: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2026-2035_47874669-en.html