Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026

This report is the World Bank's medium-term outlook on global commodity markets. The April 2026 edition pointed out that the war in the Middle East caused the largest oil supply shock in history (the Strait of Hormuz bears about 35% of the world's seaborne crude oil trade, and the initial global oil supply decreased by about 10 million barrels per day). The report predicts an overall 16% rise in commodity prices in 2026, a 24% rise in energy (the highest since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022), a 31% rise in chemical fertilizers (including a 60% rise in urea), and an estimated average Brent crude oil price of US $86 per barrel (as high as US $115 if facility damage is more serious). Precious metals prices are expected to rise by 42 per cent; inflation in developing economies is expected to reach 5.1 per cent in 2026, slowing to 3.6 per cent. Upward fertilizer and energy prices put direct pressure on global agricultural input costs and food prices.

Original link: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets