Agri Commodity Outlook 2026

This report, published by Rabobank Research in November 2025, provides a financial institution perspective on global agricultural commodity markets for the coming year. The core judgment of the report is that geopolitics has replaced traditional supply and demand as the primary variable driving the flow and price of agricultural trade, the world is increasingly divided into two circles of power centered on the United States and China, and agricultural exports have become "chess pieces on the geopolitical chessboard". The report predicts that global GDP growth will slow to 2.7 per cent in 2026 from 2.9 per cent in 2025. In 2025/26, global wheat saw its first surplus in six years (production increased by about 25 million tons), but low prices may lead to a gap of about 4 million tons in 2026/27. The report also expects the average price of palm oil to rise by nearly 7% year-on-year, and points out that the subsidy competition in various countries will support high planting area and put pressure on grain oilseed prices as a whole. The full text needs to be registered and downloaded, and the media abstract is free of charge.

Original link: https://www.rabobank.com/