OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034

About the Outlook

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 is the 21st edition of the joint OECD-FAO assessment of ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at global, regional and national levels. It is the reference medium-term baseline for policy planning and market analysis.

Consumption and production

Total consumption of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to grow 13% by 2034 in constant prices, almost entirely in low- and middle-income countries. Global agricultural and fish production is expected to expand 14% over the decade, driven mainly by productivity gains — particularly in middle-income countries — with some area and herd expansion in Africa and South Asia.

Diets, emissions and trade

Rising incomes and urbanisation shift diets toward animal-source foods: their share of dietary calories is projected to rise 6% globally (25% in lower-middle-income countries). Direct agricultural GHG emissions are nonetheless expected to increase 6% by 2034. By 2034, 22% of calories consumed globally will cross international borders, underscoring the continued centrality of a rules-based trade system.

Key scenario

A scenario analysis shows that undernourishment could be eliminated and direct agricultural emissions cut 7% below current levels by 2034 — but only with a 15% productivity improvement and widespread adoption of available emission-reduction technologies. Real international reference prices are expected to keep a slight downward trend, pressing smallholders to raise productivity.

Original link: https://oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_601276cd-en