World Agriculture
Developments, trade, data, and topics in world agriculture
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(United States) Reciprocal Tariff Cuts Take Effect; Soybeans Remain ExcludedGlobal Agricultural Watch Issue 1 | Current Observation: United States | October 1, 2026 On September 28, the Ministry of Commerce of China and the White House of the United States simultaneously announced a list of reciprocal tax reductions of about US $30 billion each for "non-sensitive goods", totaling about US $60 billion, and tariffs on more than 90% of goods were reduced to the most-favored-nation tax rate. Corn, wheat, sorghum and other U.S. agricultural products were selected, but soybeans are not on the list and still face a 10% tariff increase. 1. policy background China suspended purchases of U.S. soybeans for nearly five months in June 2025 and resumed in late October. U.S. Department of Agriculture data show that the 2025/26 market annual U.S. soybean exports fell 18.2 percent year-on-year, while shipments to China fell 45 percent to 12.4 million tons. At the end of October 2025, the two sides reached a one-year trade truce in Busan, South Korea, which was originally scheduled to expire on November 10, 2026. In May this year, the White House said China agreed to purchase at least 25 million tons of US beans and at least US $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028. On September 24, the heads of state of China and the United States held their second meeting this year in Washington. The economic and trade teams of the two countries subsequently negotiated and reached a consensus on reciprocal tax cuts and the extension of the truce. The Commerce Department said the extension of the truce provided space for subsequent consultations. Key points of 2. list Tax reduction method. The two sides each recommended a list of about US $30 billion. Based on 2024 import data, about 90% of their commodities will no longer be subject to additional tariffs and will be levied at the most-favored-nation tax rate. It is expected to be implemented simultaneously, but no effective time has been announced. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, this could lead to improved market access for about 30 percent of U.S. exports to China. List of Chinese. More than 1600 commodities are involved, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy products, vegetable oil and oil meal (including soybean oil and soybean meal), and tariffs on fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics, medical devices, etc.; the trade volume of agricultural products and related products in 2024 is about 17 billion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to China's annual purchase commitment of 17 billion US dollars. Non-seed soybeans are not included, 10% of the tariff is retained, and the combined tax burden after the 3% MFN tariff is about 13%, while Brazilian soybeans are only about 3%. The American Soybean Association (ASA) believes that the elimination of tariffs can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans. U.S. list and mechanism arrangements. The U.S. list covers Chinese consumer goods such as toys, small appliances, tableware, bedding, holiday decorations, and child safety seats. The two sides will set up a China-US Trade Council to promote "30 billion-to -30 billion" reciprocal tax cuts, and set up an agricultural working group to meet for the first time before the end of the year; the truce will be extended to January 10, 2027; and the energy sector will only involve coal. 3. Influence on China and Observation Points First, the cost of feed grain imports is expected to fall, but the actual pull or limited. After the restoration of the most-favored-nation tax rate for corn, wheat and sorghum, the cost disadvantage of grain sources in the United States has narrowed significantly, while the domestic pig stock has contracted, feed consumption has weakened, and the elasticity of import demand has declined. Second, soybeans remain off the list, and short-term purchases may still be dominated by state-owned channels. China has purchased more than 12 million tons, close to half of its annual commitment. Industry insiders report that the 10% tariff makes it difficult for private crushing enterprises to absorb it. Even if the tariff is abolished, the CIF price of US-Pakistan soybeans is roughly the same (about US $595/ton). Some analysts believe that the soybean will be treated separately, leaving room for China's follow-up consultations. Third, as of July 2026, Brazil accounted for 72.1 percent of China's soybean imports, the logistics and contractual arrangements formed by the abundance of South America have strong inertia, and the global oil and grease pattern will not be quickly reversed. Tax reduction is good for domestic vegetable oil refining and feed processing enterprises to control the cost of raw materials. Follow-up can be observed: whether the first meeting of the Agricultural Working Group before the end of the year touches on soybean tariffs; changes in the pace of Chinese procurement and the participation of state-owned and private enterprises; extension arrangements before the expiration of the truce on January 10, 2027; and planting decisions by U.S. farmers to 2027 the planting season. Source: The official website of the Ministry of Commerce of China, the list of tax reductions published by the White House and the Office of the Trade Representative (USTR); Reuters, NBC News, "World Grain" (World Grain), etc., September 28-30, 2026. Compilation: Secretariat of China Foreign Agricultural Economic Research Association.
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(EU) EUDR Product List Finalized, with Implementation Due by Year-EndOn 17 September 2026, the European Commission Authorizing Regulation (EU)2026/2102 was published in the Official Journal of the European Union and entered into force on 18 September 2026, finalizing the list of products in Annex I of the EU Zero Deforestation Products Regulation (EUDR). As the European Parliament and the Council did not raise any objection before the deadline of the objection period on September 13, the product scope of this regulation, which has been postponed twice since its promulgation in 2023, will no longer change and enter the final stage before its formal implementation at the end of the year. This round of adjustment does both subtraction and addition. The items removed from the list include cow leather and hide, retreaded tires, seed soybeans, vulcanized rubber products, conveyor belts and transmission belts, aircraft and motor vehicle seats, etc. Instant coffee, some palm oil derivatives (including palm oil soap) and frozen cow tongue will be added. The new categories will only be applicable from December 30, 2027. The regulations also specify exemptions, covering waste, second-hand and used goods, packaging materials, medical uses, and samples and products for analysis and testing. The reasons for the adjustment given by the European Commission include limited economic value, insufficient influence of operators, and encouragement of recycling. The implementation schedule will remain unchanged: large and medium-sized enterprises and all downstream operators (regardless of scale) will be applicable from December 30, 2026; micro and small enterprises established before December 31, 2024 can be extended to June 30, 2027; Timber products governed by the original EU Timber Regulation will be applicable from December 30, 2026 regardless of the size of the enterprise. The deadline for determining whether a product is under control is December 31, 2024, and products harvested or born before June 29, 2023 are not subject to this Regulation. For China, the impact of EUDR is concentrated on three levels. First, compliance costs rise: seven types of controlled commodities and their derivatives to enter the EU market, must submit due diligence statements and land-level geographical coordinates, domestic rubber tires, wood furniture, paper packaging and other industries export enterprises have been asked by customers to provide origin coordinates information. Second, the trade pattern shift: on the one hand, the export of related products to the EU is blocked, on the other hand, high deforestation risk sources may be diverted to China and other markets, forming a double squeeze. Third, rule spillover: the zero deforestation requirement is evolving from an EU regional rule to the default standard for global commodity trade. In response, the Brazilian Chamber of Foreign Trade has launched an official socio-environmental analysis report for the country's soybean, beef, coffee, timber, palm oil, rubber and cocoa exporters. The follow-up focus is on the operation of the EU Information System (TRACES) and the enforcement efforts of member states after its implementation on December 30, as well as the availability of traceability data for China's relevant export industries. Source: Directorate-General for the Environment of the European Commission; Regulation of the Official Journal of the European Union (EU)2026/2102; Shanghai Securities News, September 2026.
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(United States) Soybean Futures Hit a Three-Year High as China Buys the New CropIn late August 2026, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures price rose above $12.6 a bushel, once approaching $13, a new high since December 2023. At the same time, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) continuously confirmed export sales to China: 488000 tons on August 3, 238000 tons on August 7, 244000 tons on August 12, and 333000 tons on August 26, all of which were delivered in the 2026/27 market year. This means that after the stagnation of procurement in 2025, China's bookings for new US soybeans have restarted. The upward price support comes from both sides of supply and demand. On the demand side, China's procurement volume is obviously large, and state-owned enterprises play a major role in it. On the supply side, USDA's August supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 52.7 bushels per acre in 2026/27, with a production forecast of 4.52 billion bushels. In late August, the excellent and good crop rate dropped from 61% to 60%. In addition, China's main soybean producing areas encountered extreme high temperatures and heavy rainfall during the growing period, threatening quality and yield, which may further push up import dependence. Record production expectations constitute a reverse suppression, limiting the upside of prices. It should be pointed out that China still retains a 10% counter-tariff on U.S. soybeans, and the combined tax burden after the MFN tax rate is significantly higher than that of South American sources, so commercial buying continues to shift to Brazil. The USDA Overseas Agriculture Bureau report shows that Brazil's shipments to China from June to August 2026 hit a record high for the same period, and China's domestic profits are still negative. This means that the current round of U.S. soybean purchases is more of a policy procurement tinge-the market generally links it to the Chinese procurement arrangement disclosed by the U.S. side after the meeting in Kayama in October 2025, but the arrangement has not been formally confirmed by the Chinese side so far, and the pace of implementation has become the biggest uncertainty in the market. There are three follow-up observation points: first, whether the U.S. harvest season output can meet the USDA forecast, second, whether the continuity of China's reserve procurement and tariff adjustment, and third, the progress of Brazil's new planting and its quotation competitiveness. Source: USDA export sales report and August supply and demand report; Chicago Board of Trade quotes; Reuters, August 2026.
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(Indonesia) B50 Biodiesel Mandate Takes Effect, Lifting Palm-Oil DemandIndonesia has officially implemented the B50 biodiesel policy since July 1, increasing the blending ratio of palm oil-based biodiesel in diesel from 40% to 50%, becoming one of the countries with the highest mandatory blending ratio in the world (neighboring Malaysia's current standard is B15). The policy sets a three-month transition period. The national oil company Pertamina plans to clear B40 inventory within two months, and all distribution points will switch to B50 from October 1. The Indonesian government has incorporated B50 into the overall framework of energy security, import substitution and palm oil industry upgrading. The Ministry of Energy and Mines predicts that switching B50 in 2026 will reduce the consumption of fossil diesel by about 4 million kiloliters and save about 157.28 trillion rupiah (about US $8.8 billion) in foreign exchange for fuel imports. Indonesia also plans to stop importing diesel from July 1. On the raw material side, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association estimates that B50 requires about 16 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) per year, an increase of about 3 million tons from about 13 million tons of B40. Indonesia's total palm oil production in 2025 is about 56.55 million tons, of which CPO is about 51.66 million tons. The focus of the policy after landing is on cost and suitability. B50 subsidies rely on palm oil export tax and export levy income, the recent fall in international crude oil prices, palm oil prices remain high, the spread between the two increased subsidy pressure. In terms of terminal adaptation, users of heavy diesel equipment such as mining and logistics reported that a high proportion of biodiesel may lead to an increase in fuel consumption (tests show about 3%-5%) and accelerated wear and tear of components, thus shortening the maintenance cycle. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mines said that the durability test of B50 on heavy equipment has accumulated for more than 900 hours, and there has been no engine failure due to fuel quality, so it is technically ready for promotion. As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia's domestic demand expansion will reduce its export supply elasticity. Palm oil is China's largest import of vegetable oil varieties, the international price upward will be through the import cost and oil price difference, to the downstream transmission to soybean oil, vegetable oil alternative consumption. Source: Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; Antara News Agency; Xinhua News Agency, July 2026.
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(EU) New Rules on NGT Crops AdoptedThe European Parliament and the Council of the European Union formally adopted a new regulation on new genome technology (NGT) crops (Regulation (EU) 2026/1388) on June 17, establishing a new framework for the regulation of gene-edited crops in the EU. The regulation will take effect 20 days after its publication in the official gazette of the European Union and will apply from July 17, 2028. Before it is officially applied, the relevant plants and their food and feed will still be managed according to the current genetically modified regulations. The new regulations divide NGT plants into two categories: one category of NGT plants is considered to be equivalent to varieties obtained from traditional breeding, and shall be regarded as conventional variety management after verification by member states. genetically modified regulations are not applicable. only seeds and other propagation materials need to be marked, and their offspring need not be checked again; The second category of NGT plants contains more complex genetic modifications, and the continued application of genetically modified regulations must be subject to risk assessment and authorization, and traceability and identification management. Plants with specific traits, such as herbicide tolerance or production of known insecticidal substances, are excluded from one category. The new rules also introduce patent transparency arrangements: developers of a class of NGT plants are required to submit relevant patent information to a public database and may voluntarily declare their intention to license; the European Commission will develop a code of conduct for patents and set up an expert group to assess the impact of patents on access to genetic resources and innovation, with the participation of the European Patent Office. Member States may opt out of the cultivation of Class II NGT plants on their territory; NGT plants may not be used for organic agriculture. The current EU genetically modified regulations were formulated in 2001, earlier than NGT technology. After the European Court of Justice ruled in 2018 that gene-edited crops should be managed according to genetic modification, the European Commission proposed this amendment in 2023. Supporters believe that the new regulations will help improve the competitiveness of the EU seed industry and agricultural sustainability, while opponents have doubts about patent and labeling arrangements. After the new regulations come into effect, the supporting authorization procedures and other implementation rules still need to be completed before the 2028 applicable date. Source: European Commission Directorate General for Health and Food Safety; EU Council press release; Science | Business, June 2026.
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(United States) Agricultural Purchase Deal during the China Visit; China Pledges $17 Billion a YearUS President Trump paid a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. This is the first visit by a US president to China since 2017. The White House released the results list on May 18, and agriculture and agricultural trade have become important results areas of the meeting. According to the contents released by the White House, China has promised to purchase at least US $17 billion of US agricultural products every year in 2026 (converted according to the remaining time after the visit), 2027 and 2028. The commitment is independent of the soybean purchase agreement reached in October 2025. China has also restored the registration of more than 400 U.S. beef companies to China and added some new registrations, restarted the import of poultry products from highly pathogenic avian influenza-free areas identified by the U.S. side, and promised to speed up the handling of non-tariff barriers and markets for some U.S. agricultural products. Access issues. According to the interpretation of the Ministry of Commerce on May 20, China and the United States reached a series of positive consensus on promoting the resolution of non-tariff barriers and market access issues of some agricultural products, and agreed in principle to include relevant products in the framework arrangement of reciprocal tax reduction (each with a scale of US $30 billion or more), and set the guiding goal of expanding two-way trade of agricultural products. The U.S. side promised to promote the lifting of the automatic detention measures for Chinese dairy products and three types of aquatic products exported to the United States, and to accept the experimental export of Chinese media bonsai to the United States. In terms of mechanism construction, the two sides agreed to establish an intergovernmental trade council and an investment council to provide a normalized platform for trade and investment issues, and promote economic and trade consultations from "crisis response" to "institutional management". In addition, the Chinese side will introduce 200 Boeing aircraft in accordance with the principle of commercialization. For Sino-US agricultural trade, this round of consensus has released a signal of easing at both ends of tariff arrangements and market access. China emphasizes that no matter what reason the United States will impose or replace tariffs on China in the future, the level should not exceed the arrangements determined in previous consultations; the actual pace of implementation of relevant procurement commitments and the progress of non-tariff barriers will be the focus of follow-up observation. Source: White House list of results; Xinhua News Agency (interpretation of the Department of Commerce, US and US); Reuters, May 2026.
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U.S. House of Representatives Passes 2026 Farm BillThe U.S. House of Representatives passed the Agriculture, Food and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) by a vote of 224 to 200 on April 30, the first new five-year farm bill passed by the U.S. Congress since the Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018. The bill was introduced on February 13 and passed by the House Agriculture Committee on March 5, 34 to 17. The bill extends the authorization of related projects of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to fiscal year 2031, covering areas such as commodity support, crop insurance, conservation, agricultural credit, rural development, research and extension, trade promotion, forestry, energy, horticulture, livestock and foreign-owned agricultural land. A score released by the Congressional Budget Office on April 24 shows that the bill would increase mandatory spending by $0.162 billion in fiscal years 2026-2031 and remain largely budget-neutral over the 11-year cycle. The U.S. agricultural community generally welcomed the passage of the bill, believing that it provided policy certainty for farmers facing rising input costs and low agricultural prices. The controversy focuses on two aspects: first, the "annual sales of E15(15% ethanol gasoline)" clause originally proposed to be included was eliminated before the final vote, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives promised to arrange a separate vote on the matter within two weeks; Second, the amendment proposed by some members involving pesticide inputs has aroused concern in cotton and other industries. The next bill moves to the Senate. The Senate Agriculture Committee has not yet started its deliberation, and the extension arrangement of the current Agriculture Bill will expire at the end of fiscal year 2026, with some projects facing the risk of authorization interruption. In addition, the outdated legal provisions known as the "permanent law" will resume application to some commodities (dairy products take the lead) from January 1, 2027. If the new law is not implemented in time, it may push up relevant fiscal expenditures. Source: U.S. Congressional H.R. 7567 Legislative Record; Congressional Research Service (CRS); Press release from the Office of Senator Hyde-Smith, April 2026.
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(EU) EU adopts EU-Mercosur Agreement agricultural safeguard clauseOn March 5, the Council of the European Union formally adopted the implementing regulations to implement the bilateral guarantee clauses for agricultural products in the EU-Mercosur (Mercosur) partnership agreement and the interim trade agreement. The regulations introduce faster procedures and simpler trigger conditions on the basis of the EU's existing safeguard mechanism: a trigger threshold of 5% of the three-year average import volume of sensitive products is set, the investigation must be completed within 4 months, and temporary measures can be implemented within 21 days in case of emergency; The European Commission will also actively monitor the import of sensitive agricultural products and issue market reports on a regular basis. The negotiation of the EU-Mercosur agreement lasted more than 20 years. A political consensus was reached in December 2024, approved and signed by EU member states on January 9, 2026, and formally signed in Asuncion, Paraguay on January 17. The agreement covers Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which together account for about 30% of global GDP and more than 0.7 billion of the population. Hungary voted against, while Austria and Belgium abstained. Agriculture is the most sensitive issue in the agreement. According to the protection arrangement announced by the European Commission, there is a quota of 99000 tons of beef, a preferential tariff of 7.5 (equivalent to about 1.5 per cent of EU beef production), and no zero tariff quota. 180000 tons of poultry meat, with tariffs phased out within 5 years; 450000 tons of ethanol (for chemical purposes only); Tons of rice 60000 tons and honey 45000 tons were reduced in stages. The EU will also set up a 6.3 billion euro safety net to cushion possible market shocks after the agreement enters into force. Imported products must still comply with EU health and food safety standards. The agreement will be temporarily applied after the four countries of the Southern Common Market have completed their domestic ratification. It can enter into force as early as May 1, 2026. The formal entry into force requires the approval of the European Parliament. European farmers are wary of the competitive pressure of low-priced agricultural products in South America, and the actual implementation of the safeguard clause will be the focus of observation. Source: EU Council press release; European Commission; Euractiv, March 2026.
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(Canada) China's anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed final, tax rate reduced to 5.9 percentOn February 28, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the final ruling of the anti-dumping investigation on imported rapeseed originating in Canada (No. 14 of 2026), which determined that there was dumping of the products under investigation, substantial damage to China's domestic industry, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and damage. From March 1, 2026, anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported rapeseed originating in Canada at a rate of 5.9 for a period of 5 years. The case was filed on September 9, 2024, and the preliminary ruling announcement was issued on August 12, 2025, and temporary anti-dumping measures (deposit tax rate 75.8 per cent) were taken from August 14. The final tax rate is significantly lower than the initial level. The Ministry of Commerce said that Canada's reasonable claims were considered within the framework of the rules in the investigation and a ruling was made based on facts and evidence. For the deposit paid during the temporary measures, the excess of the final tax rate will be refunded. In line with the final ruling, China has suspended the 100 per cent anti-discriminatory tariff on rapeseed meal and peas originating in Canada and the 25 per cent tariff on lobsters and crabs from March 1 until the end of 2026. Anti-discriminatory tariffs on rapeseed oil (100 per cent), pork and pork products (25 per cent) and other products are still being implemented. The above arrangement is in line with the preliminary joint arrangement reached between China and Canada in January 2026. Canada estimates that China's comprehensive tax rate (including 9% MFN tax rate) on rapeseed will not be higher than 15%. China and Canada are each other's important agricultural trade partners, and rapeseed is a pillar commodity of Canadian exports to China. The landing of anti-dumping duties and the suspension of tariffs on some categories are regarded by both sides as a landmark progress in the relaxation of bilateral economic and trade relations. Source: Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 14 of 2026 and answers to reporters' questions; China Daily; Agriculture Canada, February 2026.
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(U. S.) U.S. Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal, global tariff system faces revaluationThe U.S. Supreme Court ruled on the "Learning Resources v. Trump" case on February 20, finding 6 to 3 that the "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" (IEEPA) did not grant the president the power to impose tariffs. The ruling noted that the right to tax is a core constitutional power granted to Congress, and that the expression "to regulate… imports" in IEEPA does not constitute a tariff authority. As a result, the two types of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under IEEPA-the "fentanyl tariff" for Mexico, Canada and China and the "reciprocal tariff" for the world-were found to be illegal and ceased to apply. On the day of the ruling, Trump signed an executive order to "terminate specific tariff actions", demanding that the relevant tariffs be stopped as soon as possible; the US Customs and Border Protection Agency announced that it would stop collecting IEEPA tariffs from 0:00 on February 24. The scale of tariffs previously collected under the law was about more than US $160 billion, and the method and time limit for the refund were not ruled by the Supreme Court. In order to fill the policy gap, the United States immediately changed to Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Law to impose a 10% tariff on global imports, which will be implemented from February 24 for a maximum of 150 days (to July 24). Any extension must be approved by Congress. According to this clause, the tariffs under Article 232 (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) and Article 301 are not affected by this ruling and continue to be implemented. For agricultural trade, the direct significance of this ruling is that the tariffs imposed on North American neighbors on the grounds of "fentanyl" have been stopped, reducing the cost of agricultural products imported by the United States from Mexico and Canada; however, the continuation of 10% global tariffs has not really subsided. Exporters from all over the world are generally concerned about whether the refund can be landed smoothly and whether the United States will introduce alternative tariff tools within the 150 window. Source: US Supreme Court ruling; DLA Piper, Withers Legal Analysis; Reuters, February 2026.
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(China) China implements safeguard measures on beef imports, three years of country-specific quota managementThe Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on December 31, 2025, announcing the final ruling on the safeguard measures for imported beef: the increase in the amount of imported beef has caused serious damage to China's domestic industry, and there is a causal relationship between the two. The safeguard measures will be implemented from January 1, 2026 for a period of three years until December 31, 2028. Measures take the form of "country quotas plus quotas plus tariffs. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce, the total quota for imported beef in 2026 is 2.688 million tons, and those that do not exceed the quota shall be subject to the current applicable tariff rate. From the 3rd day when the import volume reaches the specified quantity, a 55% tariff will be imposed on the excess part on the basis of the current tax rate. The measures will be gradually relaxed at fixed intervals during the implementation period. The quota plus tax rate in 2027 and 2028 will be reduced to 45% and 35% respectively. The unused quota of the previous year will not be carried forward to the next year. The safeguard measures shall not apply to beef originating in developing countries (regions) with an import share of no more than 3% and an aggregate share of no more than 9% of such countries. Brazil has the highest share of country quotas, 1.106 million tons, and the United States 164000 tons. During the implementation of the safeguard measures, the special safeguard measures for beef under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement were suspended. This safeguard measure is aimed at the rapid expansion of imported beef in recent years: China imported 2.87 million tons of beef in 2024, up 73.2 from 2019, with the import share rising from about 20% to about 30%; The import price has been lower than the domestic market price for a long time, resulting in a deep loss in the domestic beef cattle breeding and slaughtering process in 2024 and a decline in the number of breeding cows. Safeguard measures are one of the trade remedy tools permitted by the rules of the World Trade Organization, and this ruling is a phased arrangement aimed at striving for a buffer period for domestic industries. Source: Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 87 of 2025; Farmers Daily; Shandong Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, January 2026.
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(Russia) Russia's grain production ranks third in history, export quota policy tightenedRussia's 2025 grain harvest season is ending. According to Russian Minister of Agriculture Lutter, the annual grain output is about 0.1446 billion tons, the third highest in history, of which about 93.8 million tons of wheat; the grain diameter of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is estimated to be about 0.1345 billion tons, an increase of about 10 percent over the same period last year. Despite not reaching the peak level in 2022, Russia continues to be the world's largest wheat exporter. In terms of exports, Russia will export about 41 million tons of wheat in 2025, with about 78% going to African and Middle East markets. FAO expects Russia to export about 52 million tons of grain in 2025/26 (July 2025-June 2026), including about 45 million tons of wheat. The FOB price of 12.5 per cent protein wheat in the Black Sea was stable at $227-232 per tonne for most of the year. On the policy side, Russia continues its semi-annual export quota management: the quota for the first half of 2025 is only 10.6 million tons, the lowest in five years; On December 22, 2025, the government decided to set an export quota of 20 million tons in the first half of 2026 (February 15-June 30), covering wheat, mixed wheat, barley and corn. The rye quota is zero, and floating tariffs are applicable to exports within the quota. Analysts pointed out that Russia is seeking a balance between ensuring domestic market supply and stabilizing export earnings: tight domestic inventories prompted the tightening of quotas in the first half of the year, and liberalizing exports after a high yield will help digest inventories and exchange foreign exchange. The supply rhythm and export policy of the Black Sea grain source will continue to be the key variables of North Africa, Middle East importing countries and international wheat prices. Source: Russian Government Resolution 2089; TASS; FAO GIEWS Country Briefing, December 2025.
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(U. S.) U.S. dollar meets in Busan, U.S. says China will resume U.S. soybean purchasesOn October 30, the Chinese and US heads of state met in Busan, South Korea, which lasted about 100 minutes. This is the first face-to-face meeting between the two heads of state since the G20 leaders' meeting in Osaka in 2019. After the meeting, the US side disclosed a series of arrangements involving agricultural trade. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bethant, China has agreed to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans a year from 2026 to 2028, and 12 million tons between October 2025 and January 2026. It should be noted that the above figures were unilaterally disclosed by the United States, and China's statement was "expanding trade in agricultural products" without specifying the specific quantity. In terms of tariffs, the United States will reduce the tariff on China for fentanyl reasons from 20% to 10%, and the overall tariff level on China will be lowered accordingly. China announced that it would continue to suspend 24% of the "reciprocal tariff" for one year and suspend rare earth export control measures for one year. The United States suspended the "50% Penetration Rule" and 301 investigation measures in the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the news was announced, soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose about 3%, corn and wheat rose simultaneously, and the atmosphere in the agricultural state of the United States was revived. The U.S. Soybean Export Association said farmers are more interested in "the return of market certainty". Since the tariff war escalated in April this year, China has basically stopped purchasing U.S. beans since May. This year, U.S. soybean exports to China once returned to zero. The actual pace of subsequent purchases will be a key indicator to test the quality of this round of easing. Source: AP; Reuters; Xinhua, 30 October 2025.
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(India) India's exports recover fully, global rice prices fall to eight-year lowIndia's rice exports have resumed in full since the lifting of the non-Basmati white rice export ban at the end of September 2024 and the lifting of the broken rice export ban in March 2025. Global rice prices continue to fall with the return of supply: Thailand's 5% broken white rice export price fell to US $372.5 per ton in August, down about 26% from the end of 2024 and the lowest since 2017. The FAO All Rice Price Index fell 22.6 percent in May from a year earlier, near a three-year low. The continuous high yield of global rice is the fundamental factor for the price decline: FAO predicts that the global rice production will reach a record high in 2025/26, and the Indian government's rice inventory was once close to 60 million tons. India's rice exports are expected to be about 21.5 million tons in 2025, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year, re-opening the gap with Thailand, the second place; Thailand's exports have fallen by about 20%, and Vietnam has surpassed Thailand by virtue of its exports to the Philippines, Indonesia and other markets. The second largest rice exporter in the world. On the demand side, Indonesia will withdraw from the market for large-scale imports in 2024. The Philippines announced in August that it will implement a 60-day rice import ban from September 1, further suppressing international rice prices. For importing countries, the fall in rice prices has significantly eased the pressure on food security brought about by the wave of export restrictions in 2023, while for farmers in exporting countries, the decline in rice prices is eroding planting income, and the Thai and Vietnamese industries have called on the government to intervene. The global rice market is shifting from "supply anxiety" to "excess digestion. Source: Financial Times; FAO Food Outlook; Vietnam Agriculture Sector Statistics, August 2025.
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(EU) The United States and Europe have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU agricultural community is strongly dissatisfied.U.S. President Trump and European Commission President von der Leyen announced in Turnberry, Scotland, on July 27 that the United States and Europe have reached an agreement on tariffs: the United States will impose a 15% benchmark tariff on the vast majority of EU exports to the United States, replacing the previous threat of 30%; in exchange, the EU promised to expand the purchase of US energy and other products and increase investment in the United States. The agreement's arrangement for agriculture is of particular concern: EU agricultural exports to the United States will be subject to a 15% tariff, and there is almost no exemption arrangement. Steel and aluminum industry 50% tariff remains unchanged, EU wine and spirits are not exempted, France, Italy wine industry reaction is fierce. EU agricultural groups expressed strong dissatisfaction on the same day. The European Fruit and Vegetable Industry Association called the agreement "unilateral and completely asymmetrical"-US agricultural products get tariff-free treatment, while EU exports are subject to high tariffs; agricultural unions criticized the agreement as "at the expense of European farmers". French politicians called the agreement "unbalanced", while Italy demanded further clarification of the exemption for agricultural products. Analysts pointed out that the agreement marks the EU's concession in the transatlantic trade game, and agricultural access has become a bargaining chip. The competitiveness of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, the income expectations of European farmers, and the implementation of the EU's energy procurement commitments to the United States will continue to be tested in the coming months. Source: US-EU joint statement; Xinhua News Agency; Brussels Times, July 27, 2025.
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(U. S.) U. S.-China tariff war escalates again, U.S. agricultural exports to China blockedAfter the United States announced on April 2 that it would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on its trading partners, including China, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China issued an announcement on April 4 to counter the system: starting from 12: 01 on April 10, a 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods originating in the United States on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate. Overlaid with the 10-15% tariff on about $21 billion of U.S. agricultural products that took effect in March, the cost of U.S. agricultural products entering the Chinese market has risen significantly. Soybeans and sorghum are the most impacted categories in the United States. U.S. agricultural exports to China were $29.25 billion in 2024, down significantly from $42.8 billion in 2022; about half of U.S. soybean exports went to China. China has simultaneously suspended the qualifications of some U.S. companies for sorghum and other products exported to China. The anxiety of the American agricultural community is concentrated. Many industry organizations, such as the American Soybean Association, called on the government to resolve differences through negotiations with China, pointing out that farmers "cannot afford to lose the Chinese market again"; during the last round of trade war, US soybean exports to China shrank sharply, and the government finally had to spend tens of billions of dollars to subsidize farmers. Analysts pointed out that compared with 2018, China's dependence on U.S. agricultural products has declined significantly, and the high yield of South American soybeans has provided China with sufficient alternative sources; while U.S. farmers are also facing the double squeeze of high agricultural costs and low agricultural prices during the same period. The negotiation window and time cost are becoming the key variables in this round of the game. Source: State Council Tariff Commission Bulletin; Reuters; American Soybean Association, April 2025.
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(Brazil) Brazil's soybean production hits new high, share of exports to China continues to riseBrazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released its fifth production survey of the year on February 13. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 will reach 0.16601 billion tons, up 12.4 percent year-on-year, another record high. The USDA's caliber is 0.169 billion tons. The high yield is mainly due to the recovery of yield and the continued expansion of sown area. The survey showed that this year's soybean yield in Brazil was 3499kg/ha, an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year; the sown area was 47.45 million hectares, an increase of 2.8 percent over the same period last year, the lowest increase in six years, indicating that the kinetic energy of area expansion has weakened and more increase comes from yield restoration. On the export side, USDA expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach a record level of around 0.105 billion tons this year. China is the world's largest soybean importer. In recent years, imports from Brazil accounted for about 70% of China's total soybean imports; Brazil's soybean's main position in China has been further consolidated, and the share of US soybeans in the Chinese market has continued to shrink. Brazil's high-yield landing has suppressed global oilseed prices and intensified the game between China, the United States and Brazil in soybean trade: abundant supply in South America has increased China's purchasing options, while U.S. farmers are under pressure from increased competition in export markets. The market will then focus on the progress of harvesting and shipment in Brazil, as well as the pace of China's procurement in the new season. Source: CONAB 5th Production Survey, Brazil; USDA; China Customs, February 2025.
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(Argentina) Argentina temporarily lowers export taxes on soybeans, wheat and other agricultural productsThe Argentine government announced on January 23 a temporary reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The measures will be implemented from January 27 to June 30 in accordance with Decree No. 2025. This is the latest move by the Millet government to fulfill its campaign promise to cut taxes and deal with drought in agricultural areas and low international food prices. Specific adjustments include: soybean export tax from 33 per cent to 26 per cent, soybean meal and soybean oil from 31 per cent to 24.5 per cent, wheat, corn, barley and sorghum from 12 per cent to 9.5 per cent, sunflower seeds from 7 per cent to 5.5 per cent; and the permanent abolition of export taxes on regional agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, peanuts, rice and leather. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal and an important supplier of wheat and corn. Export taxes (locally known as "retenciones") have always been an important source of government revenue and are at the heart of the conflict between agricultural groups and successive governments. This tax cut comes at a time when the peso is under pressure and farmers are holding money to sell. The government hopes to reduce the tax burden to promote sales, speed up the settlement of foreign exchange, and ease the pressure on the balance of payments. The industry has mixed reviews: exporters and farmers welcome the improved cash flow brought about by the lower tax burden, while the financial sector is concerned about the revenue gap. The market is also concerned about the continuation of tax cuts-Argentina's agricultural policy has been adjusted repeatedly in recent years, and farmers' sowing and sales decisions will continue to swing with policy and exchange rate changes. Source: Decree No. 2025 of the Ministry of Economy of Argentina; Economic and Commercial Office of the Chinese Embassy in Argentina; USDA FAS, January 2025.
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(Indonesia) Indonesia fully implements B40 biodiesel, palm oil domestic demand increasesIndonesia will increase the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel from B35 to B40 from January 1, 2025, I .e. 40% palm oil-based biodiesel will be blended into diesel oil, and a transition period until the end of February will be set for the market to digest B35 stocks. This is the largest biodiesel blending upgrade program in the world. According to the quota arrangement issued by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the total distribution of B40 biodiesel in 2025 is about 15.62 billion litres, including 7.55 billion litres of compulsory diesel for public services, 8.07 billion litres for non-public sectors and 13.5 billion litres for the whole year. The government expects B40 to increase palm oil industry consumption by 2 million -3 million tons per year, and Indonesia's palm oil industry consumption is expected to reach about 14.7 million tons in 2024/25. There are multiple considerations behind the policy: reducing diesel imports and foreign exchange expenditures, digesting palm oil excess capacity, and supporting domestic palm oil prices. However, the market is also concerned about subsidy funds and implementation capacity-blending subsidies rely on palm oil export tax revenue, price and tax revenue fluctuations will directly affect the implementation rate. As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia's domestic demand expansion will correspondingly reduce its export supply, supporting global palm oil and vegetable oil prices, and the procurement cost structure of major importing countries such as China and India will also be adjusted accordingly. Source: Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; USDA FAS Jakarta Report; Antara News Agency, January 2025.
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(U. S.) Trump re-elected, the U.S. agricultural community fears a repeat of the trade warThe Associated Press calculated on November 6 that Trump won more than 270 electoral votes in the 2024 US general election, defeating Harris to be re-elected president. During the campaign, Trump promised to impose a 10%-20% across-the-board tariff on all imports and an additional 60% tariff on Chinese goods, and fears of a repeat of the trade war in the U.S. agricultural community rose rapidly. China is the largest single export market for U.S. agricultural products. In the 2023/24 marketing year, the United States exported 46.3 million tons of soybeans, of which nearly 25 million tons were exported to China, accounting for 54% of the United States soybean exports, worth about US $13.2 billion. Industry research shows that if China resumes imposing tariffs on U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybean exports to China may be reduced by 14 million -16 million tons per year, a drop of more than half, and Brazil will be the biggest beneficiary. The lessons from the trade war in 2018 are still there: US soybean exports to China once plummeted from about US $14.2 billion to US $3.1 billion, and the US government issued about US $28 billion in agricultural subsidies for this. While congratulating the election, the American Farm Bureau Federation and other agricultural groups urged the new government to complete the new farm bill legislation as soon as possible and properly handle issues such as taxation and labor costs. Soybean futures fell on the Chicago Board of Trade after the election results were announced. Most analysts believe that it will take time for the tariff policy to come to fruition, but the pace of China's purchase of US beans and the production prospects of new season crops in South America will add new uncertainty to the international agricultural product market in 2025. Sources: AP; Reuters; American Soybean Association Industry Report, November 2024.