World Agriculture
Developments, trade, data, and topics in world agriculture
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U.S. corn farmers face liquidity crunch: corn prices have fallen nearly 30 percent in the past March~ ~ U.S. Corn Farmers Face a Cash Crunch Prices Have Fallen Nearly 30% in Past Three Months Tumbling corn prices are sowing fears that many U.S. farmers will suffer their first losses in years and the agricultural economy could face its first sustained slump in a decade. Corn prices have plunged nearly 30% in the past three months to their lowest point since 2010 as near-perfect weather in the Midwest fuels expectations of a second consecutive bumper harvest. Prices of other crops have fallen sharply as well, with soybeans trading near 2½-year lows and wheat near four-year lows. Iowa farmer Doug Adams said he and his partner likely will try to renegotiate their rent on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal The price-depressing glut of corn is benefiting companies that depend on grain for animal feed and other uses, including meatpackers, livestock farmers and ethanol producers. Shares of Tyson Foods Inc. TSN +2.58% have soared 47% in the past 12 months, while rival chicken processor Pilgrim's Pride Corp. PPC -1.45% has gained 95%. Shares of Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM -0.10% , which processes grain into ethanol, corn syrup and other products, are up 34%. Lower global grain prices are helping consumers as well, especially in countries where the cost of bread and other staples accounts for a large share of spending. A monthly food-price index published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization declined for a third month in a row in June to the lowest since January, largely due to a marked drop in grain and vegetable-oil prices. The lower commodity costs could temper inflation in U.S. grocery aisles for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy, though few packaged-food companies are likely to cut prices, analysts said. But the slide in corn prices is expected to cut sharply into overall incomes in the U.S. Farm Belt because corn is the country's largest crop, grown on 350,000 farms and yielding about $60 billion in farmers' revenue last year. Now 57% off its record high in 2012, corn is trading well below the $4-a-bushel threshold generally required for farmers to earn profits. That means many growers this year likely will fail to cover their costs for the first time since 2006, according to agricultural economists. Signs of strain already are evident in the Midwest. Farmland values in some regions have begun to dip after a yearslong boom, and demand for farm equipment has slipped. Deere DE -0.19% & Co., the world's largest seller of farm equipment, reported a 9.5% decline in its second-quarter profit in May and said U.S. sales of farm and landscaping equipment would decline between 5% and 10% this year. Sales of tractors, seeds and other farm supplies are expected to suffer further as farmers keep dialing back spending. "A lot of money has evaporated," said Matt Bennett, who farms 3,000 acres in Windsor, Ill. "It's going to be hard not just on farmers, but also the guys who build sheds" and "sell pickup trucks ." Mr. Bennett, 39 years old, said he expects to make a profit this year because he already sold about half his expected crop for about $5 a bushel. But "margins will definitely get squeezed" and 2015 could be much tougher, he said. On Thursday, corn for September delivery, the front-month contract, fell 1 cent, or 0.3%, to $3.615 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. While the economic picture in the Farm Belt is worsening, economists and agricultural bankers said they aren't worried about severe shocks like the 1980s farm crisis because farmers carry relatively low debt levels and built up cash reserves during the recent boom. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated the level of operator debt relative to farm assets would fall to 10.5% this year, the lowest since 1954. Corn and soybean prices also could rebound somewhat if dry weather hits the Midwest late in the growing season, analysts said. But if favorable weather continues, corn futures could fall to $3.25 a bushel, estimates Mark Schultz, an analyst with brokerage Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. "This market will be in the doldrums this year and also into next year," he said. The USDA projected in February that net U.S. farm income would decline 27% this year, to $95.8 billion, the lowest since 2010. Because growing conditions have been exceptional since then, some agricultural economists and bankers say the income drop could be even steeper, and continue next year. U.S. farm income last fell for two years in a row in 2005 and 2006. Lower prices could temper inflation for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy. Iowa farmer Doug Adams checks his crop. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal The abundance of U.S. corn comes just two years after a severe drought damaged crops and sent prices to more than $8.31 a bushel. Before last year's 40% plunge, corn prices had hovered above $6 a bushel for most of the previous three years, boosted by rising demand from the ethanol industry and foreign markets such as China. U.S. farm incomes remained high last year, reaching $130.5 billion, the most on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1973. The USDA has projected this year's corn crop will total 13.86 billion bushels, just shy of last year's record 13.93 billion. Because costs for tractors, combines, land, fertilizer and seeds mostly increased along with crop prices in recent years, many corn growers face losses when corn prices drop below $4 a bushel. "It's a very different situation than we had a few years ago," said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. "We're talking about cutting net [financial] returns in half ." Bankers said they would take a cautious approach as they review farm loans after the growing season. "There's a good chance based on what we're seeing that we could be looking at further reduction of incomes in 2015," said Eric McRae, executive vice president with First Mid-Illinois Bank & Trust in Decatur, Ill. "If that happens, we may be looking at more stringent controls ." Growers who rent land to grow crops, which accounts for about 38% of U.S. farm acreage, face the biggest impact from lower prices as costs generally are higher than for producers who own their land, said Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. Doug Adams, a 39-year-old Iowa farmer, said he and his business partner likely will try to renegotiate the rent they pay on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year. "High cash rent is not going to be sustainable," said Mr. Adams, who has farmed since he graduated high school. "We can't rent farms and lose money year after year ." Write to Jesse Newman at jesse.newman@wsj.com and Tony C. Dreibus at tony.dreibus@dowjones.com
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Climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields~ ~ climate change may lead to a decline in global corn yields 2014-07-29 09:24 | source: China Grain Network according to research published in the quarterly journal Environmental Research Letters published by the Royal Institute of Physics (IOP), although the global demand for food and fuel for corn and wheat will increase in the next 10 to 20 years, as climate change causes Temperature rise, the probability of corn and wheat yields falling will increase. David Lobell, deputy director of the Center for Food Safety and Environmental Research at Stanford University, and Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that due to climate change caused by human factors, the probability of a decline in corn yields is as high as 10%, and the probability of a decline in wheat yields is 5%. A statement issued by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado stated that if the impact of man-made climate change is excluded, the probability of a slowdown in crop yield growth will drop to about 1. The Tebaldi said that due to the impact of climate change, crop yields will not keep up with demand growth in the next 20 years. Until then, higher crop yields have helped to meet the growing global demand for food. In the context of population growth, any factor affecting yield growth is not conducive to the global food supply to meet demand, thus triggering global instability. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), corn and wheat yields are expected to increase by 13% every 10 years between now and 2030. Lobell and Tebaldi hope to find out whether rising global temperatures will reduce corn and wheat yields by 10% over the next 20 years. If this happens, it means that the increase predicted by FAO will be reduced by nearly half. The study found that every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature would result in a 7% reduction in corn yield growth and a 6% reduction in wheat yield growth. Corn crops are the most vulnerable to rising temperatures because they are more concentrated and therefore more vulnerable to climate change. Lobell says he is often asked whether climate change threatens the food supply, a question that is difficult to answer simply. What is certain is that the outlook for food supply over the next 10 to 20 years depends on how fast the earth's temperature rises. We cannot accurately predict the rate of global warming, all we can do is try to determine the probability of a rise in temperature. Lobell and Tebaldi said their study did not take into account the consequences of rising temperatures causing geographic shifts in corn and wheat farming. Regional shifts in corn and wheat yields, such as to cold, high-latitude regions with cooler growing seasons, could mitigate the impact of lower yields, they said. However, the study found that such adjustments take time and may not be able to change global corn and wheat production patterns in a timely and effective manner. For example, since 2000, the area planted with corn in North Dakota and South Dakota has increased by 50%, but its output is still less than 10% of the total output of the United States.
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Corn high yield in the hope of falling food prices~ ~ corn high yield in the hope of falling food prices 2014-07-28 09:26 | source: China Grain Network | in the week ending July 25, 2014, the global food market prices mostly fell, because the weather in the US corn producing areas was almost ideal and the corn yield was in sight. At the same time, corn prices have fallen sharply recently, attracting overseas buyers to purchase, restricting the price decline. On Friday, the September 2014 corn period on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about 363 cents per bushel, down 8.25 cents from a week ago. December corn closed at about 371.75 cents a bushel, down 6.75 cents from a week ago. US Bay's No.2 yellow corn export price averaged 456.50 cents per bushel, down from 461.75 cents per bushel a week ago. November corn futures for the European EURONEXT closed at 155 euros a tonne, down 8 euros from a week earlier. The purchase and sale price of corn delivered in Argentina in August 2014 was 182.08/193.89 USD per ton, compared with 186.80/192.71 USD a week ago, FOB price on the river. The January 2015 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2331 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan from a week ago. Let's look at the U.S. corn crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop progress report shows that so far, the rate of good corn crops in the United States has remained at an all-time high. As of July 20, the proportion of corn with excellent ratings was 76%, the same as a week ago, and higher than 63% in the same period last year. This week Lanworth, an analyst owned by Reuters, predicted an average U.S. corn yield of 172.8 bushels per acre in 2014, up from 172.1 bushels a week ago and 165.3 bushels currently expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Lanworth expects U.S. corn production to reach a record 14.6 billion bushels this year, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects U.S. corn production to be 13.86 billion bushels this year. From the perspective of demand, the price of corn in the United States has fallen sharply recently, hitting a four-year low, attracting overseas buyers to purchase in the market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that in the week ending July 17, U.S. net corn sales (including the old season and the new season) totaled 1.435 million tons, up 34% from 1.069 million tons last week. Among them, the sales volume of corn in the new season is as high as 1.1434 million tons, which is not only much higher than the 495000 tons last week, but also higher than the 40 to 600000 tons expected by analysts. 2013/14 2014/15 Total week ending July 10 573,700 495,000 1,068,700 week Ending July 17 291,500 1,143,400 1,434,900 in addition, U.S. farmers hoarding goods for sale also helped corn prices rebound from their current lows. Agricultural prices have risen sharply in recent years, and American farmers have plenty of money on hand, so they are not eager to sell corn at current prices, but wait for prices to rebound. In addition, the improved storage capacity of U.S. farms, including the use of giant white plastic bags common in the agricultural areas of Argentina's Pambas Plain to store corn, is much less expensive than traditional barns and can be stored for up to two years, which also helps farmers increase their bargaining power when dealing with grain giants such as Cargill. Other news included a July supply-and-demand report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showing that Canadian corn and barley production may be lower than earlier thought due to adverse weather. According to the report, Canada's barley production forecast for 2014/15 was lowered to 7.34 million tons, lower than last month's forecast of 7.7 million tons, but still higher than the previous year's forecast of 10.237 million tons. Canada's corn production in 2014/15 is expected to be 11.305 million tons, down from 12.375 million tons predicted last month and 14.194 million tons last year. In general, the main factor affecting corn prices in the near future is that the decline in corn prices has attracted improved demand, but the prospect of corn supply in the new season is still huge. It should be pointed out that although the demand for corn has improved, the large supply side of corn is currently the main factor affecting prices. Unless obvious weather problems in the United States and even the world cause corn yields and yields to be lower than earlier expected, it is difficult for improved demand for corn to support a sustained rebound in prices. After all, corn prices are only at low levels to stimulate cheap buyers to enter the market. Once prices go up, it is difficult for demand to remain strong. In particular, at present, the fund still holds a net long order of 70000 lots in the US corn futures market. Although it has decreased by nearly 45000 lots compared with a month ago, there is still room to continue to reduce its holdings, and it does not even rule out the possibility that the fund will overturn. At present, the fund has been in the soybean and wheat market to complete the more empty. Therefore, we are still not optimistic about the rebound in the corn market. Unless there is an unexpected change in the weather, any rebound will only provide the market with a new opportunity to sell.
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Organic farming is growing rapidly in Europe~ ~ Rapid Growth In Europe's Organic Farming Sector 7/24/2014 10:37 AM ET In the last decade, both the number of organic farms and the area dedicated to organic farming have grown by 50 percent or more in the European Union. Organic area in the EU increased by about 500 000 hectares per year. As a result there are more than 186 000 organic farms across Europe, cultivating an area of 9.6 million hectares, according to the latest Brief on organic farming published on Thursday by the European Commission. Based on an earlier 2013 report on organic farming , the brief provides an overview of areas and holdings, type of production and characteristics of organic farmers. Organic production patterns vary between EU Member States. However, across the EU, permanent pasture accounts for the biggest share of the organic area (about 45 percent) followed by cereals (around 15 percent) and permanent crops (about 13 percent). Organic animal production remains limited in comparison with the total animal production in the EU (about 1 percent). Organic farm managers tend to be younger than conventional farmers in the EU. In 2010, farmers younger than 55 represented 61.3 percent of the total in the organic sector but only 44.2 percent in non-organic agriculture. In the context of the sector's considerable and rapid growth, the Commission has proposed new updated and adjusted rules for the sector which are currently discussed with the European Parliament and the Council. by RTT Staff Writer For comments and feedback: editorial@rttnews.com
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California drought causes severe water shortages for agriculture~ ~ Calif. drought brings greatest agriculture water loss Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 8:59 a.m. EDT July 16, 2014 The drought in California - the third most severe on record - is responsible for the greatest water loss ever seen for the state's agriculture, and river water for Central Valley farms has been reduced by roughly one-third, according to a study out Tuesday from the University of California-Davis. However, "California's agricultural economy overall is doing remarkably well, thanks mostly to groundwater reserves," said Jay Lund, a co-author of the study and director of the university's Center for Watershed Sciences, which released the study. The entire state is in a drought. More than 36% is in "exceptional" drought, the worst level, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, a federal website that's updated weekly. The UC-Davis report found that direct costs to agriculture total about $1.5 billion (which include revenue losses of $1 billion and $0.5 billion in additional pumping costs). This net revenue loss is about 3% of the state's total agricultural value. Farmers in pockets of California hardest hit by the drought could begin to see wells run dry next year. "We expect substantial local and regional economic and employment impacts," Lund added. "We need to treat that groundwater well so it will be there for future droughts ." Other findings from the report: • The loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs related to agriculture due to the drought represents 3.8% of farm unemployment. • The drought is likely to continue through 2015, regardless of whether the climate pattern El Niño develops, which could provide needed rain and snow next winter. • Consumer food prices will be largely unaffected. Higher prices at the grocery store of high-value California crops such as nuts, wine, grapes and dairy foods are driven more by market demand than by the drought. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/07/15/california-drought-agriculture-water-loss/12687343/
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The first swine fever found in Europe~ ~ Europe's first case of swine fever outbreak at farm complex detected in Lithuania World July 24, 16:20 UTC 4 The Lithuanian state food and veterinary control service launched an investigation to establish how virus had appeared in the farm African swine fever confirmed at Poland-Belarus border MOSCOW, July 24 ./ITAR-TASS/. The outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in the Idavang farm in Lithuania is the first case in a farm complex in Europe, an aide of the head of the Russian federal veterinary and phytosanitary control service, Alexei Alexeyenko, has told ITAR-TASS. Before the outbreak, ASF cases were reported from private farms, he said. The Lithuanian state food and veterinary control service launched an investigation to establish how ASF virus had appeared in the farm. The main version was a human factor. The European Union veterinary service and the World Organization for Animal Health had not made any statement in this connection, he added. Alexeyenko told ITAR-TASS earlier that the Russian veterinary service planned to inform the WTO group of arbitrators about the case. The group was formed in the World Trade Organization on July 22, 2014 to consider the EU suit against Russia over the ban on pork supplies. The ASF outbreak was reported in the Idavang complex on Thursday, July 24. The Lithuanian veterinary service intended to eliminate 20,000 pigs from the farm. Russia since April 7, 2014, has banned imports of all meat products from Lithuania in connection with the ASF epidemic. African swine fever is not dangerous for humans, but very dangerous for wild and domestic pigs. The disease rapidly spreads among animals and causes serious damage to agriculture and economy on the whole.
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Those things about agriculture, rural areas and farmers in GermanyGermany's rural areas enjoy those things. Source: Yimu Tian News http://news.ymt360.com/show-9-693652-1.html enjoying the German countryside. Blue skies, endless fields, leisurely cattle and sheep, a clean and tidy small villages and towns ...... Water, electricity, communications, transportation everything. All parts of the German countryside are lawns and trees, and asphalt roads reach every household. It is said that one of the dreams of many Germans is to have a yard, raise horses, raise a few cows, and chickens and sheep. German farmers are happy. In Germany, when the farmer is not a simple matter, must carry on the agricultural education, the certificate. Germany implements the EU's "Common Agricultural Policy", the core of which lies in agricultural subsidies. According to statistics, about 40% of the income of German farmers comes from direct subsidies. Farmer amateur life is very leisurely the men are sitting on the side of the street drinking beer and chatting, or a few women are sitting in the courtyard "Kaffeeklatsch" (drinking coffee and chatting around 4 pm). Some people walk the dog, while others barbecue on the lawn. Every small town has its own festival, and even every small street has its own "street festival". Agriculture is advanced. Agricultural employees account for about 4% of the total labor force, and there are less than 600000 farmers. On average, each labor force feeds 124 people, and more than 80% of agricultural products can be self-sufficient; Germany is the world's largest exporter of agricultural machinery, and it is fully mechanized from sowing to harvesting. There are 1079 associations of various kinds and more than 10000 cooperatives of various kinds in the country. Germany has established the "German Farmers Association" with more than 300 regional organizations. More than 90% of farmers are affiliated to the association. The association provides farmers with various free services, from providing information to safeguarding the rights and interests of farmers. All inclusive. Germany's agricultural development is dominated by small and medium-sized family farms. 90% of farmers are engaged in breeding and general planting, and 10% of farmers are specialized households growing grapes, hops, fruits, vegetables and tobacco. Animal husbandry is an important source of income for most family farms in Germany, and the annual per capita income of each farmer is about 315000 yuan. Germany's agricultural profession is not good. In Germany, when the farmer is not a simple matter, must carry on the agricultural education, the certificate. At the age of 20, Zheim studied in agricultural technology school for three years, got the qualification of agronomist, and went to the United States for two years to obtain the qualification of economic manager. With two more years of work experience, he can be fully qualified. Only with the full teacher certificate can Zheim be qualified to continue his father's vineyard industry. Straw not burned in Germany feed warehouses, cattle barn, milking workshops, bio-power stations… the Germans have always followed the principle that straw is part of the natural value chain and has a place in the agricultural cycle. In the farm's straw, 1/4 is used for fodder, and the other 3/4 is used for laying the cow pen. After laying the cow pen, it is finally mixed with the cow's manure to become the fertilizer of the farm and fertile soil. (Editing: If so)
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Australia's rice or called the key to ensuring world food security~~Australian wild rice could hold key to global food security Wednesday 9 July 2014 11:26AM Australia's northern wetlands could soon play a leading role in global food production, as researchers look to native wild rice to overcome the diseases and production hurdles that plague domesticated varieties. Charlie McKillop joined the hunt for wild rice in the Top End. Wild rice is growing in abundance in wetlands across remote parts of northern Australia, particularly in far north Queensland. Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI) team leader Professor Robert Henry uses GPS coordinates to zero in on rice plots identified at several sites covering a 200 kilometre radius from Mareeba north to Lakefield national park near Cooktown. His excitement is palpable. We do have to come to understand how traditional people have used rice in the past... I think we need to go back and explore that with them. Professor Robert Henry, QAAFI This is the latest thing in rice,' he says. 'We've got quite a bit of international attention on the potential of the rices from this part of the world and they really are quite unexplored .' 'Botanically, north Queensland and northern Australia is not very well explored at this level .' Professor Henry is convinced these remote wetlands could hold the key to global food security. Not only is the diversity of species unique, but their uncontaminated genes offer hope in a world where over-cultivation has displaced many wild food sources. Despite returning to the far north on many occasions, Professor Henry continues to be amazed by the sheer abundance of rice. 'We do find it in many places, and some of it in very large populations, occasionally almost as far as the eye can see and that's extraordinary .' It's clear the veteran team leader has one eye on the past and the other on the future as he seeks to understand more about the attributes of a unique, but little-known native crop. 'We do have to come to understand how traditional people have used rice in the past and I think we need to go back and explore that with them, because with rice being so abundant in some areas, here it's clearly a food source that must have been used in the past .' As anyone who has grown rice well knows, disease is a constant worry, and the recent spectre of rice blast disease in Australia has presented new challenges for commercial breeding programs. Plant pathologist Andrew Geering says that is why ancient DNA found in Australian wild rice could be crucial to the industry's defence against disease. 'If our hypothesis is right, the rice blast disease and the wild rice here have been living together for thousands, if not millions of years .' 'Diseases in natural environments tend to reach some sort of equilibrium, where the disease doesn't kill the host population, but it just occurs at a very low level and that's probably because there's a diversity of resistance genes in the wild rice .' Wild rice researchers in the field in far north Queensland Image: Wild rice researchers undertake a search at Lakefield National Park in Cape York Peninsula (Supplied) 'The wild rice we've been looking at here is closely related to the domesticated rice and it can be interbred, so there is potential for the breeders to integrate any resistance genes .' Beyond the laboratory, the QAAFI team is very focused on the commercial potential of far north Queensland's wild rice. Is it realistic to expect that one day we might see a Mareeba Wetlands, Abattoir Swamp or Lakefield rice variety being served up on a plate? According to Dr Ian Chivers, it's definitely a possibility. He's embedded in the team, working on behalf of his company, Native Seeds, a seed developer and producer of Australian native grasses. 'There looks to be, on the face value, some opportunity with the material that's gained here, there's clearly a long way to go,' he says. 'I guess the big thing I 've learned as much as anything else, is how dependant they are on aquatic systems ... and that worries me to an extent, if we're going into a drying climate, as to whether we can use them or not .' 'I guess we don't know the quantum of the water that's required .' Dr Glen Fox, a cereal chemist, is keen to return to the lab to put his samples through a rigorous series of sensory evaluation trials, to assess the taste, palatability, appearance and nutritional qualities of the rice. 'It really has challenged our thinking about how we can take it to the next level, how we can potentially make it a commercial crop,' he says. 'We're interested in how we can get enough yield that we could actually produce enough for food; that's a challenge, but we think we can and we're quite excited about what we can do with it .'
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Thai rice exports up 52 percent year-on-year in first five months~ ~ thai rice exports up 52 percent year-on-year in first five months 2014-07-08 10:16 | source: China Grain Network | according to data released by the Thai Rice Exporters Association, Thailand exported 3.82 million tons of rice from January to May 2014, an increase of about 52% over the 2.51 million tons exported in the same period last year. In terms of market value, Thailand's rice exports earned about 63.076 billion baht in the first five months of this year, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. In US dollars, Thailand's rice exports earned about US $1.938 billion, up about 8% year-on-year.
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Brazil's rice production to grow by 4% in 2014~ ~ brazil's rice production to grow by 4% in 2014 2014-07-11 10:12 | source: China Grain Network | according to a report released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazil's rice production in 2014 is expected to be 12.3 million tons, an increase of about 4.23 percent over the previous year's output of 11.76 million tons. The average rice yield in 2014 is expected to be 5.3 tons per hectare, an increase of about 6% over the previous year's 5 tons. Improved planting and cultivation techniques have boosted Brazilian rice yields. IBGE also expects the area of rice harvested to grow by about 2 per cent this year. Brazil's General Administration of Commodity Supply (Conab) predicted in June that Brazil's rice production in 2013/14 would be 12.25 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 12.632 million tons, but up 4% from the previous year. USDA expects Brazil's finished rice output to be 8.6 million tons in 2013/14 (April to March of the following year), up 8% year on year. (Source: Master Boyi
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The sown area of corn in the United States may be lower than the forecast value in March.~ ~ the sown area of corn in the United States may be lower than the forecast value in March. 2014-06-20 09:59 | source: China Grain Network | the USDA will release its quarterly grain inventory report on June 30, along with a report on plantings. Darrell Goode, an agricultural economist at Illinois State University in the United States, said that these two important reports will set the tone for the corn market, because then the corn crop will enter a critical growth stage. Given that corn futures prices have fallen by more than 40 cents a bushel, or nearly 9 percent, in the past month, these two reports are of particular interest to the market this year, as unexpected data could lead to intense volatility in the corn market. In terms of the sown area report, the USDA's sowing intention survey report released in March showed that the sown area of corn in the United States will reach 91.691 million acres this year, 3.674 million acres less than in 2013. After the release of this report, the market speculated that the actual sown area would exceed the intended level, because the total crop sown area data in the report may be under-reported, that is, the actual total sown area is higher. However, due to the late planting of corn in the northern part of the United States this year and the stronger trend of soybean price than corn price in the late planting season, this means that the soybean planting area in the above areas may be higher than the US planting intention data in March, and the abandoned farmland area may also exceed the forecast level in March, which means that the corn planting area may be lower than the planting intention data in March. Although the June report will include intended data on unplanted areas, the reported area data should be close to the actual area data released at the end of this year. Unless there is a significant difference between the data reported in June and the planting intention data in March, the market's forecast for corn production will continue to change around factors such as weather and yield expectations. Considering that the crop progress weekly report released by the US Department of agriculture in the latest week shows that the excellent and good rate of corn has reached 76%, the best level in the same period in 20 years, the market expects that the corn yield per unit area this year will reach the historical average level or exceed the trend line level. (Source: Boyi Master)
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Can ecological agriculture feed China?Can ecological agriculture feed China? Wang Xuan 10.07.2014 Unfair subsidies and confused debates are hampering the development of ecological agriculture, argues Wang Xuan article image Ecological agriculture can meet China's future food needs, argues Wang Xuan (Image by Greenpeace) Frequent food scandals in China in recent years such as "cadmium rice" and "poisonous beans" have caused public outrage. In response, voices calling for the development of ecological agriculture (by which I mean to minimise the use of chemical fertilisers and maximise the use of local knowledge and resources) have swelled. Fewer chemicals in agriculture, for example through biological control and promotion of organic fertilisers - argue supporters of ecological agrticulture - will decrease harmful impacts on the environment and ensure food safety. While the chemicals used in agriculture do not normally contain heavy metals, overuse of them will acidify the soils. In this kind of soil heavy metals become more active and more easily absorbed by plants. Opponents of ecological agriculture claim that the use of fewer fertilisers and pesticides will decrease agricultural output. They do not believe that ecological agriculture can feed China. Food waste and diets But the very question - can ecological agriculture feed China? - is in fact highly problematic. First, what is "feeding China" actually supposed to mean? According to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, the world produces enough food to cover the world population's needs - yet nearly 900 million people still go hungry every day. China alone is home to 130 million people experiencing malnutrition, mostly in remote rural areas, while nearly a fourth of the urban population is obese. Thus food security does not solely depend on food production, but also on distribution - which is to say accessibility. It is erroneous to believe that sufficient food production automatically eradicates malnutrition as long as China's poor continue to have much worse access to the stuff than the rich. Second, food waste remains a serious problem. According to estimates from the United Nations Environment Programne, one-third of the world's food production gets wasted during storage, transportation and consumption. Experts from China Agricultural University found that around eight million tonnes of protein and three million tons of fat go to waste from the nation's dinner tables alone - enough to feed 200 million people for a year. In this light, China's current level of food production is more than sufficient. Critics say that with climate change and other threats to agricultural output we cannot switch to systems of farming that may be less productive. However, research continues to suggest that ecological agriculture actually would meet challenges better than conventional agriculture and could ensure the long-run sustainability of food production. For example, a global survey of 18,870 rice farmers in 13 countries shows that a traditional growing method known as "System of Roots Intensification (SRI)" (which relies on tillage, density reduction, soil fertility enhancement etc.) can yield 20-100% more rice while reducing fertilisers by 50-100%, seed demand by 80-90% and water demand by 25-50%. A case study on Xinsheng Village in Sichuan province reveals that SRI increased rice yield by 42% compared to conventional farming and that many farmers found SRI to be less labour-intensive. A study on 62 'ecological operations' from around the world concluded that fewer pesticides were used in 75% of the cases (by an average of 70.8%) while output increased across the board (by an average of 41.6%). Ecological agriculture has already proven successful in some of the world's agricultural powerhouses. The combined wheat production of France, Germany and the UK accounts for one-third of Europe's total. High yields have been maintained despite a decline in the use of fertilisers over the past 20 years (see below). Research has previously shown that European farms that implement the strictest ecological standards at first obtain yields 8% smaller than those of conventional farms. Yet after a transition period production picks up and eventually meets, or even exceeds, yield levels achieved by conventional agriculture. Were China to implement ecological agriculture and aim to use fewer chemical inputs step by step in different areas, the slightly lower yields of the areas in transition could be offset by increases in other areas not yet converted, so overall there will be no major fluctuations of output. And if food waste were to decrease as well by even as little as 10%, then ecological agriculture could indeed "feed China ". Fertilisers and chemical inputs Organic farms do not achieve less output. The labour-intensive nature of ecological agriculture is, potentially, not an impediment either as it provides employment opportunities to rural jobseekers. Furthermore, organic farming technology is constantly improving. Ecological agriculture's real disadvantage is its weak position in an imbalanced discourse and the uneven distribution of benefits. The benefits are anchored in the State Council's Notice, 'Reform on Deepening the Fertiliser Distribution System,' which outlines a series of preferential treatments for fertiliser companies. China subsidises the fertiliser industry with nearly 110 billion RMB a year, nearly as much as the central government spends each year on education. The original intention behind the subsidies was to lower the price of fertilisers, thereby keeping farmers' production costs low. But the "Notice" also liberalised the fertiliser business and so the market now determines the price. The proportion of farmers' spending on fertilisers has constantly increased vis-a-vis their production costs and just a quick glance into the fat books of the companies tells us all about the whereabouts of the money. Organic farms, in contrast, receive zero support. Greenpeace finds that the government has launched no concrete project related to ecological agriculture and only spent a total of 7 million RMB on related research in 2011. Rather than asking whether ecological agriculture can feed China we should be asking whether ecological agriculture would also feed the chain of vested interests in today's conventional agriculture.
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Informa raises global corn yield forecast~ ~ Informa raises global corn yield forecast 2014-07-11 09:56 | source: China Grain Network | according to a report released by the Informa Economic Corporation, a US analysis agency, the global corn production in 2014/15 (July to June of the following year) is expected to be 0.9743 billion tons, higher than the earlier forecast of 0.971 billion tons. However, the latest production forecast is still lower than the previous year's actual production of 0.9844 billion tons. Informa expects Brazil to produce 72 million tons of corn in 2014/15, up from an earlier forecast of 69.3 million tons and 76.5 million tons the previous year. Ukraine's corn production is expected to be 27 million tons, up from an earlier forecast of 26 million tons and 30.9 million tons the previous year. Informa expects U.S. corn production to be 0.3488 billion tons this year, down from an earlier forecast of 0.3493 billion tons and 0.3537 billion tons last year. China's corn production forecast for 2014/15 remains unchanged at 0.22 billion tons, compared with 0.2177 billion tons in the previous year. The forecast for corn production in the 28 EU countries remained unchanged at 66.4 million tons, compared with 64.6 million tons in the previous year. Argentina's corn production forecast remained unchanged at 26.2 million tons, compared with 26 million tons in the previous year. Mexico's production forecast remained unchanged at 22.5 million tons, compared with 21.9 million tons in the previous year. (Source: Boyi Master)
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U.S. and Global Soybean Supplies AdequateHuge US, global grain, soya supplies on tap July 13, 2014 RECORDER REPORT The US Department of Agriculture on Friday signalled abundant US and world grain and soyabean supplies in the coming year, a trend anticipated in futures markets for weeks by rapidly falling prices. Projected 2014/15 US corn carryout, at 1.801 billion bushels, was above the analysts' average forecast, and at almost 13.9 billion bushels, the crop is not much below the 2003 record high of 13.925 billion bushels. Old-crop US corn feed usage was lowered, but corn used to produce ethanol was projected 25 million bushels higher based on the blistering pace of production to date. US soyabean ending stocks for 2014/15 were pegged at 415 million bushels, close to trade expectations. If realised, that would be the highest since 2006/07. USDA will not survey the corn and soyabean crops until August, but suggested huge production could be at hand - if weather co-operates for several more weeks. "Favourable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July," USDA said. At the start of this week some 75 percent of corn was rated in good to excellent condition, and development was moving ahead at a normal pace. For soyabeans, 72 percent were in good or excellent condition this week. For now, most of the Corn Belt has ample moisture to support crop development. Ahead of harvest, though, soyabean supplies are razor-thin in many parts of the country, and record high imports have helped to plug the supply gap. USDA lowered its forecast for US winter wheat production to 1.367 billion bushels, below trade expectations, based on lower harvested yields. The projected yield for Kansas, the dominant hard red winter wheat-producing state, fell by 1 bushel per acre from June. "The HRW crop was damaged by drought and April freezes in the southern and central Plains," said USDA. USDA now sees the total US wheat crop at 1.992 billion bushels, down 6 percent on the year but up 50 million bushels on the month, bolstered by a big spring wheat crop. Projected season-average prices for wheat, corn and soyabeans were all lowered as USDA caught up with the sharp price drops seen in markets recently. World soyabean ending stocks will jump to 85.3 million tonnes in 2014/15 from 67.2 million in the current season. Projected imports by China were raised by 1 million tonnes, to 73 million, accounting for two-thirds of global demand. World corn and coarse grain ending stocks for 2013/14 and 2014/15 each hiked substantially. China's corn crop was lifted by 2 million tonnes to 222 million, keeping its imports for the 2014/15 season at a slim 3 million tonnes. Australia's wheat crop for 2014/15 was raised by 500,000 tonnes to 26.0 million, based on rising acreage forecasts. New-crop wheat consumption was also raised for the European Union and Ukraine and Serbia. Imports were lowered for Egypt and Mexico but raised for Sudan, Indonesia and Nigeria.
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As China's urbanization accelerates, who will feed the Chinese?~~As China becomes more urbanised, who will feed their people? By Contributor on 11 July 2014 Finola McCoy pictured bagging garlic with the locals in China. Nuffield scholar Finola McCoy reports from China on the latest leg of her global study tour. As the people move to cities, who will feed their people? Food safety or food security? While the former may be foremost in the mind of Chinese consumers, it is food security that is truly their biggest challenge. The increasing demand for food is constant, driven by a growing population and rising incomes. In fact, only 50% of the growing food demand worldwide will be due to population growth, with the rest due to improved diet and income. Securing enough food to meet this growing demand is no small feat. China wants to grow its agricultural production towards self-sufficiency, rather than being dependent on other countries. However there are some clear obstacles to get over first, some of which we can relate to in Ireland. Land availability for example. Chinese farmers don't "own" the land they farm - it belongs to "the people" or the chinese nation. Instead, farmers have the right to farm the land for their lifetime. Average farm size is 1Mu, which equates to two-thirds of a hectare, with minimal mechanisation and a high dependency on manual labour. As a farmer, the only way to increase your land base is to "sub-let" land from another farmer. This is one of the few opportunities right now, for land consolidation that will enable modernisation and the adoption of technology, to improve efficiencies. One such example that we visited was the business of Peter Yeung. A Hong Kong native, Peter is currently producing vegetables for the Hong Kong market from two farms in the Chinese mainland, which produce counter-seasonally. In order to secure the right to farm these blocks of land, Peter has had to individually negotiate and draw up contracts with about 10,000 farmers! The government has produced a strategy document, which includes a specific focus on agriculture, particularly land reform. This is an effort to look at changing the land management rights to enable more land leasing - create larger production units, modernise production and increase output. Even on these larger production units, there is currently a heavy reliance on manual labour. While labour may be freely available and reasonably affordable at the moment, it is expected that by 2050 only 30% of the population will be of working age. Another challenge is perception of farming. Unlike Ireland and many other countries, farmers in China are considered lower class citizens. It is not a way of life that parents want for their child. This is despite the fact that Chinese farmers are feeding 21% of the world's population (from 10% of the arable land). Urbanisation is rapid in China, with the government actively moving people into the cities. Almost every town and city that we drove through had clusters of developments - each one with 15-20, 20-storey apartment blocks under construction. It's estimated that by 2030, 200 million people (=10 x Australian population) will have left their farms in the country for a "better" life in the city. Without farmers, who will feed their people?
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OECD/FAO Food Production Growth to Meet Global Demand Over the Next Decade~~UPDATE 1-Rising food output to meet global needs over next 10 yrs - OECD/FAO Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:19am EDT By Isla Binnie ROME, July 11 (Reuters) - World food output is on track to meet the needs of a growing population after a decade punctuated by supply concerns, the OECD and U.N. food agency (FAO) said on Friday. Global agricultural production and consumption will rise in the next 10 years, as people in emerging countries become wealthier and eat more protein, but the increases will be slower than in the previous decade, the agencies said. Surplus stocks and rising production should keep commodity prices stable after the "roller coaster" of the last decade marked by a record high in 2008 and global recession in 2009. "We are recovering from a period of marked turbulence in the agricultural markets but there is no room for complacency," said OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria, presenting the OECD-FAO 2014-2023 agricultural outlook in Rome. "The world can grow enough food over the next 10 years and it can respond to the broader challenge of feeding 9 billion people by 2050," Gurria said. He added, however, that waste remained a threat to food security, saying around one third of crops produced in developing countries were lost post-harvest. Agricultural markets are still unstable, after near-record prices in 2012 prompted increased production which led to surpluses for wheat, rice, sugar and vegetable meal. Bad weather and concerns over export restrictions were blamed for the 2012 price surge, which stoked fears of a return to the conditions that led to violent protests in countries including Egypt, Cameroon and Haiti in 2007-2008. Global food price inflation now appears lower and more stable than it has since the 2008 crisis, the OECD and FAO said. Crop prices would drop for one or two more years before stabilising above pre-2008 levels, but below recent peaks. Wheat prices are projected to slide about 1 percent a year in real terms for the next 10 years, staying around 13 percent below the previous decade's average. Strong demand for meat from an expanding middle class in the Middle East and Asia will keep meat prices from falling as much as feed grain prices, and meat prices in real terms will average higher than the previous decade after general price inflation. CALL TO ACTION FAO director-general Jose Graziano Da Silva called on governments to invest in roads, transportation and storage, saying only a few countries had made progress. "India is one good case for that ... also China but I would not be able to add too many more," Da Silva said. Gurria also said governments needed to rethink their policies on biofuels, which opponents say contribute to price inflation by consuming feedstocks that could be used for food. "Part of the reason why we had the spikes and hikes in the prices was because we were burning food. Now I think we have gotten wiser about that," Gurria said. Biofuel output growth is expected to slow by 2023. In line with lower growth in production and consumption, trade will rise more slowly in the next decade. Grains and meat trade are set to advance 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent in volume terms each year, half the rates of the previous decade. While the Americas will remain the dominant export region globally, Ukraine will become Europe's biggest exporter of grains and oilseeds. Worries about conflict in Ukraine stopping shipments helped force prices higher this year, but Gurria said there had been no substantive effect on markets, prices, availability or stocks. The outlook is based on assumptions about government policies, markets, weather and macroeconomics, but some areas of uncertainty, including animal diseases, are not included. (Reporting by Isla Binnie, editing by David Evans)